Correcciones excesivas en los mercados emergentes

MILÁN – Hasta hace relativamente poco, se ignoraban en gran medida las llamadas transiciones de ingreso medio de los países, en parte porque lo que se esperaba como una transición a menudo se convertía en una trampa. Unas pocas economías asiáticas –especialmente Japón, Corea del Sur y Taiwán– se deslizaron tranquilamente a la categoría de altos ingresos con tasas de crecimiento relativamente elevadas. Pero, en la gran mayoría de las economías el crecimiento se desaceleró o se detuvo por completo en términos per cápita una vez que entraron en la categoría de ingreso medio.

En la actualidad, los inversores, los responsables de las políticas y las empresas cuentan con sobradas razones para dedicar mucha más atención a esas transiciones. Para empezar, con un PIB del tamaño de los estantes BRICS combinados (Brasil, Rusia, India y Sudáfrica) más Indonesia y México, China ha subido considerablemente la apuesta. El crecimiento chino sostenido, o su ausencia, tendrá un efecto significativo sobre todos los demás países en desarrollo... y sobre las economías avanzadas.

En segundo lugar, las economías desarrolladas están desequilibradas y crecen muy por debajo de su potencial, sus perspectivas de mayor crecimiento son diversas pero limitadas para los próximos cinco años. Por el contrario, las economías emergentes, con su mayor potencial de crecimiento, cada vez más representan grandes mercados potenciales a explotar.

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