Overshooting nei mercati emergenti

MILANO – Fino a relativamente poco tempo fa, i cosiddetti paesi di transizione verso il reddito medio sono stati per gran parte trascurati, per lo più perché il processo di transizione si è spesso rivelato come una trappola. Alcune economie dell’Asia, in particolar modo il Giappone, la Corea del Sud e Taiwan, hanno raggiunto lo status di reddito elevato con tassi di crescita relativamente alti. Ma la gran parte delle economie ha subito un rallentamento o ha smesso del tutto di crescere in termini pro capite dopo aver raggiunto il reddito medio.

Oggi, gli investitori, i policy maker e le aziende hanno diverse ragioni per prestare maggiore attenzione a questi processi di transizione. Innanzitutto, con un PIL pari al PIL complessivo dei paesi BRICS (Brasile, Russia, India e Sudafrica) e dell’Indonesia e del Messico, la Cina ha alzato il tiro in modo significativo. Una crescita sostenuta della Cina, o un’eventuale assenza di crescita, avrà infatti conseguenze importanti su tutti gli altri paesi in via di sviluppo, così come sulle economie avanzate.

In secondo luogo, le economie sviluppate sono in una situazione di squilibrio e stanno crescendo ben al di sotto del loro potenziale, con prospettive differenziate ma limitate di una crescita più rapida nell’orizzonte di cinque anni. Per contro, le economie emergenti, grazie al loro potenziale di crescita elevata, rappresentano sempre più dei grandi mercati potenziali da sfruttare.

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