Overshooting nei mercati emergenti

MILANO – Fino a relativamente poco tempo fa, i cosiddetti paesi di transizione verso il reddito medio sono stati per gran parte trascurati, per lo più perché il processo di transizione si è spesso rivelato come una trappola. Alcune economie dell’Asia, in particolar modo il Giappone, la Corea del Sud e Taiwan, hanno raggiunto lo status di reddito elevato con tassi di crescita relativamente alti. Ma la gran parte delle economie ha subito un rallentamento o ha smesso del tutto di crescere in termini pro capite dopo aver raggiunto il reddito medio.

Oggi, gli investitori, i policy maker e le aziende hanno diverse ragioni per prestare maggiore attenzione a questi processi di transizione. Innanzitutto, con un PIL pari al PIL complessivo dei paesi BRICS (Brasile, Russia, India e Sudafrica) e dell’Indonesia e del Messico, la Cina ha alzato il tiro in modo significativo. Una crescita sostenuta della Cina, o un’eventuale assenza di crescita, avrà infatti conseguenze importanti su tutti gli altri paesi in via di sviluppo, così come sulle economie avanzate.

In secondo luogo, le economie sviluppate sono in una situazione di squilibrio e stanno crescendo ben al di sotto del loro potenziale, con prospettive differenziate ma limitate di una crescita più rapida nell’orizzonte di cinque anni. Per contro, le economie emergenti, grazie al loro potenziale di crescita elevata, rappresentano sempre più dei grandi mercati potenziali da sfruttare.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/R81ekyi/it;
  1. Patrick Kovarik/Getty Images

    The Summit of Climate Hopes

    Presidents, prime ministers, and policymakers gather in Paris today for the One Planet Summit. But with no senior US representative attending, is the 2015 Paris climate agreement still viable?

  2. Trump greets his supporters The Washington Post/Getty Images

    Populist Plutocracy and the Future of America

    • In the first year of his presidency, Donald Trump has consistently sold out the blue-collar, socially conservative whites who brought him to power, while pursuing policies to enrich his fellow plutocrats. 

    • Sooner or later, Trump's core supporters will wake up to this fact, so it is worth asking how far he might go to keep them on his side.
  3. Agents are bidding on at the auction of Leonardo da Vinci's 'Salvator Mundi' Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Getty Images

    The Man Who Didn’t Save the World

    A Saudi prince has been revealed to be the buyer of Leonardo da Vinci's "Salvator Mundi," for which he spent $450.3 million. Had he given the money to the poor, as the subject of the painting instructed another rich man, he could have restored eyesight to nine million people, or enabled 13 million families to grow 50% more food.

  4.  An inside view of the 'AknRobotics' Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

    Two Myths About Automation

    While many people believe that technological progress and job destruction are accelerating dramatically, there is no evidence of either trend. In reality, total factor productivity, the best summary measure of the pace of technical change, has been stagnating since 2005 in the US and across the advanced-country world.

  5. A student shows a combo pictures of three dictators, Austrian born Hitler, Castro and Stalin with Viktor Orban Attila Kisbenedek/Getty Images

    The Hungarian Government’s Failed Campaign of Lies

    The Hungarian government has released the results of its "national consultation" on what it calls the "Soros Plan" to flood the country with Muslim migrants and refugees. But no such plan exists, only a taxpayer-funded propaganda campaign to help a corrupt administration deflect attention from its failure to fulfill Hungarians’ aspirations.

  6. Project Syndicate

    DEBATE: Should the Eurozone Impose Fiscal Union?

    French President Emmanuel Macron wants European leaders to appoint a eurozone finance minister as a way to ensure the single currency's long-term viability. But would it work, and, more fundamentally, is it necessary?

  7. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now