Surajustement dans les marchés émergents

MILAN – Jusque relativement récemment, ce que l’on appelle le problème de la transition des pays pauvres vers des niveaux de revenus intermédiaires était largement ignoré – en partie parce que ce qui était censé être une transition se transformait souvent en piège. Quelques pays d'Asie – en particulier le Japon, la Corée du Sud et Taiwan – ont maintenu le cap jusqu’au statut de pays riche grâce à des taux de croissance relativement élevés. Mais la grande majorité des économies ont ralenti voire carrément cessé de croître en termes de richesse par habitant après leur accession au statut de pays à revenu intermédiaire.

Aujourd'hui, les investisseurs, les décideurs politiques et les entreprises ont plusieurs raisons de consacrer beaucoup plus d'attention à ces transitions. Tout d’abord, avec un PIB qui aussi grand que le total combiné des autres pays des BRICS (Brésil, Russie, Inde et Afrique du Sud), de l'Indonésie et du Mexique, la Chine a augmenté les enjeux considérablement. Une croissance chinoise soutenue, ou son absence, aura un effet significatif sur tous les autres pays en développement – ainsi que sur les économies avancées.

Deuxièmement, les économies développées sont en situation de déséquilibre et de croissance bien inférieure à son potentiel, avec des perspectives de croissance plus rapide variées mais néanmoins limitées sur un horizon de cinq ans. En revanche, les économies émergentes, avec leur potentiel de croissance plus élevé, représentent de plus en plus de grands marchés potentiels à exploiter.

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