新兴市场的矫枉过正

发自米兰——直到最近一段时间,各国的所谓中等收入过渡阶段大多都是被忽视的——有一部分原因是本应是过渡的阶段往往会沦为一个陷阱。几个亚洲国家——尤其是日本,韩国和台湾——都借助相对较快的增长率跨越到了高收入阶段。但绝大多数经济体的人均经济指标增长则在中等收入阶段出现放缓甚至完全停滞。

今时今日,投资者,政策制定者和企业都有许多理由去密切关注这些过渡。首先是中国,这个GDP总量相当于其他四个金砖国家(巴西、俄罗斯、印度、南非)加上印尼和墨西哥的经济体令这个问题更为重要。中国能否持续增长将对其他所有发展中国家——以及发达国家——产生极大影响。

其次,各大发达经济体都出现了经济失衡且无法完全展现其增长潜力,在未来五年内都只存在千差万别但基本有限的快速增长预期。相比之下增长潜力更高的新兴经济体就逐渐成为了可供开发的巨额潜在市场。

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