El desafío distributivo

MILÁN – Evaluar el pasado reciente y esperar ansiosamente el próximo período es un ejercicio natural de fin de año. Cuando se trata de la economía global en 2013 y 2014, quizá también sea un ejercicio necesario.

En el pasado año, el riesgo sistémico decayó. Europa se unió frente a la necesidad de estabilizar la eurozona, mientras que el Banco Central Europeo y Alemania desempeñaron los papeles protagónicos. Se completó la transición de liderazgo de China y se estableció una dirección relativamente clara en materia de políticas, lo que presenta un campo de juego mucho más nivelado para los sectores privado y estatal y un rol en expansión –de hecho, “decisivo”- para los mercados. La elección general de Alemania apuntó a una continuidad en lo que concierne a las políticas, aunque parece inevitable un período prolongado de crecimiento lento y desempleo elevado.

Las economías emergentes (excluida China) sólo se vieron desestabilizadas temporariamente por la expectativa de una retracción monetaria en Estados Unidos. Sin embargo, se están preparando para un mundo de tasas de interés más altas, signado por una desaceleración transicional del crecimiento.

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