La Sfida Redistributiva

MILANO – La valutazione del recente passato ed il fare progetti per il futuro prossimo è un esercizio naturale di fine anno. Quando si parla di economia globale nel 2013 e nel 2014, questo esercizio diventa anche necessario.

L'anno scorso, il rischio sistemico è diminuito. L’Europa ha fatto squadra attorno alla necessità di stabilizzare la zona euro, con la Banca Centrale Europea e la Germania a giocare i ruoli principali. Si è completata la transizione della leadership in Cina e si è stabilita una direzione politica relativamente chiara, con un campo da gioco a più livelli per i settori privati e statali e un ruolo dei mercati in espansione – per non dire decisivo. Alle elezioni politiche, la Germania ha scelto la continuità, anche se sembra inevitabile un lungo periodo di crescita lenta e di disoccupazione elevata ed estesa.

Le economie emergenti (ad eccezione della Cina) sono state solo temporaneamente destabilizzate dalla previsione della stretta monetaria negli Stati Uniti. Si stanno, comunque, preparando per un mondo con un livello generale dei tassi di interesse più alto, contrassegnato da un rallentamento transitorio della crescita.

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