Die Verteilungsherausforderung

MAILAND – Die Bewertung der jüngsten Vergangenheit und der Blick nach vorn in die nahe Zukunft sind zum Jahresende ein natürlicher Vorgang. Und was die Weltwirtschaft der Jahre 2013 und 2014 angeht, sind sie womöglich auch eine Notwendigkeit.

Die systemischen Risiken haben im letzten Jahr abgenommen. Europa hat sich zusammen der Notwendigkeit gestellt, die Eurozone zu stabilisieren, und die Europäische Zentralbank und Deutschland spielten dabei die Hauptrollen. Der Führungswechsel in China ist vollzogen, und es wurde eine relativ klare politische Richtung festgelegt, die mehr Chancengleichheit zwischen dem privaten und dem staatlichen Sektor vorsieht und den Märkten eine größere – tatsächlich eine „entscheidende“ – Rolle zubilligt. Das Ergebnis der Bundestagswahl in Deutschland lässt politische Kontinuität erwarten, auch wenn eine längere Phase langsamen Wachstums und hoher Arbeitslosigkeit unvermeidlich scheint.

Die Schwellenvolkswirtschaften (ohne China) wurden durch Erwartungen einer strafferen Geldpolitik in den USA nur vorübergehend aus dem Gleichgewicht gebracht. Sie bereiten sich jedoch auf eine Welt höherer Zinsen vor, die durch eine vorübergehende Wachstumsabschwächung gekennzeichnet ist.

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