Образцовый кризис Ирландии

ДУБЛИН. Ирландия, наконец, вырвалась из тисков программы «дотаций за жесткую экономию», установленных Тройкой (Европейской комиссией, Европейским центральным банком и Международным валютным фондом) для задолжавших стран еврозоны, и теперь задает тон в экономическом возрождении валютного союза. Европейские политики, в том числе Жан-Клод Трише, бывший президент ЕЦБ, высказали мысль, что твердая приверженность Ирландии политике жесткой экономии – образец для других стран.

Но так ли это? Не так давно ирландское экономическое чудо тоже принималось за образец, – который журнал The Economist в 1997 году назвал «сияющим светом Европы», – вызывая преклонение столь удаленных и непохожих друг на друга стран, как Китай и Израиль. Затем Ирландия сделалась образцом того, как не следует управляться с «мыльным пузырем» собственности и, впоследствии, образцом банковского кризиса. Хотя завершение программы Тройки – это несомненный успех, особенно по сравнению с тем, сколь ужасно выглядела ситуация в конце 2010 года, ни одна страна не должна стремиться к тому, что пережила Ирландия.

Большинство ирландских граждан также не согласятся с утверждением, что их страна была образцовым пациентом, излеченным жесткой экономией. Тот факт, что страна опять вошла в моду среди политиков еврозоны, отражает хаотичность их экономического мышления и глупое подражание им со стороны аналитических центров и международных учреждений. Настоящая социоэкономическая модель должна быть построена на основе укоренившегося «образа действия» – настолько укоренившегося, что эту модель, подобно хваленой скандинавской модели, почти невозможно воспроизвести в другом месте.

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