Las divisas de los mercados emergentes se hunden

MUNICH – Para muchas economías emergentes, 2014 ha tenido un arranque sombrío. Las inquietudes por la pronunciada desaceleración de la economía china y la abrupta devaluación del peso argentino respecto al dólar estadounidense, han desencadenado una fuerte presión para vender divisas de una serie mercados emergentes. Sin embargo, la volatilidad actual no presagia un crecimiento menos dinámico sostenido en economías emergentes en conjunto. Es necesario hacer la distinción, y eso es lo que están haciendo ahora los mercados financieros.

La magnitud del daño varía ampliamente de un país a otro. Por ejemplo, los problemas que ahora acosan a Argentina no son nuevos. Al contrario, son la consecuencia inevitable de años de políticas mal administradas que han provocado una alta inflación, una moneda seriamente sobrevaluada y una erosión enorme de las reservas extranjeras.

En contraste, las monedas de los mercados emergentes de Europa  Central y Oriental se han mantenido relativamente estables. Por ejemplo, gracias al sólido desempeño económico de Polonia, el złoty ha conservado en esencia su tipo de cambio frente al euro, que ha perdido valor por 2.2% desde el comienzo del año (a partir de principios de febrero). El forint húngaro perdió poco más de 5% respecto de la moneda única durante el mismo periodo, pero fue menos abrupto que en el pasado, cuando los problemas macroeconómicos del país provocaron una mayor susceptibilidad del tipo de cambio a variaciones en la confianza del mercado.

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