新兴市场的货币贬值

发自慕尼黑——对于许多新兴经济体来说,2014年的开局堪称灰暗。对中国经济显著降速以及阿根廷比索对美元汇率大幅下跌的忧虑导致一大批新兴市场货币均面临极大抛售压力。但当前的弱势并非预示着新兴经济体整体的增长将持续走弱。我们必须要把其中各国区分开来,而这也正是金融市场目前的工作。

各国之间受影响的程度差异极大。例如目前困扰着阿根廷的一系列问题并不是意料之外。相反,这是多年以来错误政策管理所导致的近乎不可避免的后果,正是这些政策滋生了高通胀,货币币值过度高估以及巨额外汇储备流失。

相比之下,中东欧地区新兴市场国家的货币还相对稳定。得益于波兰强劲的经济表现,其货币兹罗提(złoty)兑欧元基本保持平稳,2月初汇率仅较今年年初下跌了2.2%。在同一时期匈牙利货币福林(forint)兑欧元则下跌了5%多一点,但跌幅已经较以往有所收窄,而当年该国的宏观经济问题导致其汇率对市场情绪波动的敏感程度比如今要大得多。

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