不相干的德国消费者

慕尼黑—在下一次七国集团和二十国集团会议上,全球再平衡将是日程上的当务之急,而长期存在出口盈余的德国将再次承受提振内需和家庭消费的压力。但多国消费者可谓“躺着也中枪”。真正需要的是德国和欧洲增加投资,以及极宽松货币政策的有序退出。

大规模对外账户失衡是2008年全球金融和经济危机及其后欧元区动荡背后的一个主要因素。现在,全球经济正处于再平衡过程中,但并不是以许多人预期的那样进行的。

曾经巨大的亚洲外部盈余以极快的速度减少,日本甚至出现了贸易赤字。中国经常项目盈余降至GDP的2%,而2007年为GDP的10%。投资仍是中国经济的主要引擎,但也导致了债务飙升和影子银行部门繁荣,当局正在设法遏制。

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