Le opzioni dell'Europa

STANFORD – Molti europei sono ormai convinti di essersi lasciati la tempesta economica e finanziaria alle spalle. Negli ultimi due anni, d'altronde, deficit e debito si sono stabilizzati, gli interessi sul debito sovrano delle economie più deboli della periferia dell'eurozona sono calati drasticamente, il Portogallo e l'Irlanda hanno terminato i rispettivi programmi di salvataggio e l'ipotesi che la Grecia uscisse dall'euro è rientrata.

Tutto questo è vero, ma c'è un grosso problema: la crescita economica dell'Unione europea resta anemica. Il Pil dell'Olanda e dell'Italia è diminuito nell'ultimo trimestre, mentre quello francese si è mosso appena. Gli esperti stanno rivedendo al ribasso le stime di crescita dell'eurozona per il 2014 fino all'1% annuo. Il tasso di disoccupazione nell'eurozona è all'11,6%, un dato impressionante, mentre negli Stati Uniti si è attestato al 10%, il livello peggiore raggiunto durante la grande recessione americana. In Grecia e Spagna, invece, esso supera il 25%, con punte ancora più alte tra la popolazione giovanile.

Tre problemi – debito sovrano, euro e instabilità bancaria – ostacolano l'economia europea nonostante le numerose misure di sicurezza varate di recente, tra cui il Meccanismo europeo di stabilità (MES), la politica del denaro facile e le partecipazioni del debito sovrano della Banca centrale europea e il subentro della Bce nella supervisione delle circa 130 maggiori banche paneuropee, avvenuto a novembre. Nessuna di queste riforme si è dimostrata sufficiente per ripristinare quella crescita forte di cui l'Europa ha un disperato bisogno.

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