Mexikos Labyrinth der Unsicherheit

Die Frage nach der Ursache von Wirtschaftswachstum ist wohl eines der faszinierendsten Themen der Ökonomie, das politisch sowie auch geopolitisch von immenser Bedeutung ist. Ein äußerst lehrreiches Beispiel in dieser Hinsicht bietet Mexiko - bei dem es sich weder um einen wirtschaftlichen Tiger wie China oder Singapur, noch um einen ökonomischen Nachzügler wie viele afrikanische oder karibische Staaten handelt.

Während einer Reise durch Mexiko sprach ich kürzlich mit vielen Mexikanern über den Zustand ihrer Wirtschaft und über ihre Zukunftshoffnungen. Ich fragte sie nach ihren langfristigen Erwartungen und danach, wie sie die wirtschaftlichen Aussichten Mexikos in den kommenden Jahrzehnten sehen. Was ich dabei zu hören bekam, deutete darauf hin, dass die meisten Mexikaner mit großer Unsicherheit in die Zukunft blicken - womöglich mit genau der Unsicherheit, die unseren unzureichenden Kenntnissen über Wachstum im Allgemeinen zugrunde liegt.

Die Mexikaner scheinen zu glauben, dass sie in ein paar Jahrzehnten an den US-amerikanischen Lebensstandard herankommen könnten. Auf der anderen Seite scheint es ihnen aber ebenso wahrscheinlich, dass ihr heutiger Lebensstandard noch absinken könnte. Diese Mischung aus Optimismus und Angst ist allgegenwärtig und betrifft mexikanische Firmen ebenso wie mexikanische Familien.

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