Le Labyrinthe d'incertitude du Mexique

Le moteur de la croissance d'un pays est peut-être la question la plus fascinante en économie, ainsi qu'une question d'une grande importance politique et même géopolitique. Quand on y réfléchit, le cas du Mexique, qui n'est ni un tigre économique asiatique comme la Chine ou Singapour ni à la traîne comme de nombreux pays africains ou caribéens, pourrait se montrer riche d'enseignements.

Lors d'un récent voyage au Mexique, j'ai discuté avec de nombreux Mexicains au sujet de l'état de leur économie et de leurs espoirs pour l'avenir. Je les ai interrogés sur leurs aspirations à long terme et sur leurs analyses des perspectives économiques du Mexique pour les années à venir. Tout ce que j'ai entendu suggère le sentiment dominant chez la plupart des Mexicains d'une grande incertitude quant à leur avenir, peut-être même cette même incertitude à la racine de notre connaissance imparfaite de la croissance en général.

Les Mexicains semblent croire qu'ils pourraient atteindre le niveau de vie des Américains d'ici quelques années. Pourtant, ils pensent également fort probable que leur niveau de vie puisse baisser au plus bas. Ce mélange d'optimisme et de peur se retrouve chez tout le monde, dans le monde de s affaires et dans la sphère privée.

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