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墨西哥选出了自己的特朗普

Jul 2, 2018 Jorge G. Castañeda

墨西哥城——美国总统唐纳德·特朗普过去18个月来一直是令世界最头疼的问题，而且可以说没有哪个国家比墨西哥受害更重。在墨西哥刚刚进行完的总统大选的三个主要候选人中，没有哪个像人称AMLO的获胜者安德烈斯·马努艾尔·洛佩斯·奥夫拉多尔那样在应对来自白宫的恶霸方面准备不足。但无论如何，墨西哥人民选择他成为总统，而他在自己六年任期的绝大部分（甚至全部）时间内都不得不与特朗普打交道。

墨美关系并非核心竞选议题，也不会成为奥夫拉多尔的优先事项。但其对墨西哥人所造成的影响肯定会超过其他多数事务。

奥夫拉多尔和特朗普之间有许多相似之处。二者似乎都是真正的经济民族主义者：特朗普希望美国在钢铝方面实现自给自足，而奥夫拉多尔则力争在玉米、小麦、牛肉、猪肉和木材等领域为墨西哥实现相同的目标。特朗普和奥夫拉多尔都不赞成贸易协定，但都能克制自己的厌恶情绪而作出务实的选择：特朗普退出了跨太平洋伙伴关系协定，但至少到目前为止还没有退出北美自由贸易协定，而奥夫拉多尔则表示将继续与美国和加拿大展开北美自贸协定的重新谈判，完成现总统恩里克·培尼亚·涅托所追求的目标。

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Andrés Galia Jul 8, 2018

Que este buen señor tenga la desfachatez de "opinar" sobre las posibilidades de AMLO después de ser representante de gobiernos mexicanos que han sumergido a las clases menos favorecidas a la miseria, a la mayoría de los mexicanos a la corrupción y la violencia es realmente lamentable. Al menos hubiese tenido la prudencia de meter violín en bolsa e ir a lamer sus heridas a algún otro lado. Como dijo el que lo dijo: ¡ la tienen adentro!
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Jim Philllips Jul 4, 2018

Mr. Castaneda does a disservice to his reputation with this blatantly biased article that slants toward his own PAN leanings. Besides not coming close to explaining the premise -- AMLO and Trump are similar -- this piece smacks of his entitled political class mentality. His pontifications about AMLO represent exactly what Mexicans rejected -- a corrupt ruling elite comprised of business and union leaders, and politicians. As a card carrying member of that elite that has raped Mexico for the last two decades, Mr. Casteneda has some cajones grandes to be casting aspersions about López Obrador.
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Luis Gabriel Castro Jul 4, 2018

This guy worked for the PAN's presidential candidate. Part of their strategy was to say that AMLO was making proposal that that he did not. Unfortunately, now his political analysis is based on such false premises. He should worry about his credibility
- Peter Schaeffer Jul 4, 2018
  
  LGS, You wrote "This guy worked for the PAN's presidential candidate". You probably meant Jorge G. Castañeda. However, it isn't quite clear. I think you should have written "Jorge G. Castañeda worked for PAN's presidential candidate...".
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Peter Schaeffer Jul 4, 2018

Folks who want to understand Mexico, might start by reading "Ferocious Differences" by Jorge G. Castañeda. The abstract will help.

"The Mexican devaluation apparently caught Wall Street and the Clinton Administration by surprise -- Mexico was opaque even to experts with a huge stake in knowing what was going on. The reason, writes the author, a Mexican intellectual, goes beyond finance to the Mexican national character and how enduringly different the country is from the United States."
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Peter Schaeffer Jul 3, 2018

If anyone wants to understand Mexico, don't waste time on PS. Try Pinker, David Reich, Amy Chua, and Jorge Castañeda (his books, not this column). You will learn a lot and you won't be surprised the AMLO won and won't be surprised by (whatever) happens next.
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Peter Schaeffer Jul 2, 2018

"US President Donald Trump has been the world’s worst headache for the past 18 months, and arguably no country has suffered more than Mexico."

What nonsense. The Open Society crowd endlessly claims that "cheap labor is good" and "poor people are an asset". Obviously, by keeping Mexicans in Mexico, Trump is proving himself to be Mexico's best friend. Mexico should demand that the Wall be completed immediately or just build the Wall itself. Obviously, the Wall would be of enormous benefit to Mexico.
- Mats Gezelius Jul 10, 2018
  
  “or just build the Wall itself”...
  
  Like East Germany or North Korea? Great role models! As you put it: What nonsense.
  - Peter Schaeffer Jul 13, 2018
    
    You are confusing walls and doors. Every apartment, house, and home has walls and doors to keep unwanted strangers out. East Germany and North Korea use wall to trap their own people in. Big difference. You should be able to understand this.
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Peter Schaeffer Jul 2, 2018

I won't pretend to be optimistic about Mexico now that AMLO has won. However, a certain note of modesty is needed here. The "Open Society" crowd has been running Mexico for roughly 30+ years. They have failed to improve the lives of ordinary Mexicans. In 1980, Mexico's per-capita PPP GDP was $10,882. In 2010, it was $11,939. That not impressive to say the least.

Mexico's per-capita GDP has actually fallen (a lot) compared to the U.S. See Fred series PGDPUSMXA621NUPN. Of course crime has exploded.

By contrast, South Korea's per-capita GDP was 20.4% of the U.S in 1980 but 61.8% in 2010.

Mexico is in many respects, a failed state. The cosmopolitan elite fantasy is that if a nation adopts the policies of the cosmopolitan elite, it will prosper/thrive accordingly. Mexico is just another example of how wrong that fantasy really is.
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墨西哥选出了自己的特朗普

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