El problema del crecimiento en México

PRINCETON – Cuando el entonces presidente mexicano Carlos Salinas de Gortari y su contraparte estadounidense Bill Clinton firmaron el Tratado de Libre Comercio de América del Norte (NAFTA) hace más de 20 años, la esperanza era que la economía mexicana se viera impulsada por la creciente ola de la globalización. Según muchos indicadores, esa esperanza se ha cumplido ampliamente.

El volumen de comercio exterior (exportaciones más importaciones) mexicano creció continuamente después de la entrada en vigencia del NAFTA y aproximadamente se duplicó para alcanzar el 60 % de su PIB. La inversión extranjera neta respecto del PIB se triplicó. Si bien México es un país exportador de petróleo, sus exportaciones de manufacturas han liderado el avance y su economía se ha integrado cada vez más a las cadenas de aprovisionamiento norteamericanas. Las industrias automotriz y del acero, alguna vez ineficientes y cuya supervivencia dependía del abrigo de barreras comerciales proteccionistas, son hoy extremadamente prósperas y productivas.

Como tantos otros países, México fue inicialmente sufrió el duro golpe de la competencia china en los mercados mundiales, especialmente después de que China se convirtiera en miembro de la Organización Mundial del Comercio a fines de 2001. Sin embargo, su proximidad al mercado estadounidense y sus políticas monetarias, fiscales y laborales conservadoras le han brindado una protección significativa.

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