O Problema de Crescimento do México

PRINCETON – Quando, há mais de 20 anos, o então Presidente do México Carlos Salinas de Gortari, e o seu homólogo Americano, Bill Clinton, assinaram o Tratado Norte-Americano de Livre Comércio (NAFTA, na sigla inglesa – NdT), esperava-se que a economia Mexicana fosse impulsionada por uma crescente onda de globalização. Em muitos aspectos, essa esperança foi amplamente cumprida.

O volume de comércio externo do México (exportações mais importações) subiu firmemente depois do NAFTA ter entrado em vigor, praticamente duplicando até mais de 60% do PIB. A parte do investimento estrangeiro líquido no PIB triplicou. Embora o México seja um exportador de petróleo, as suas exportações de produtos manufacturados assumiram a liderança, enquanto a economia se tornava cada vez mais integrada nas cadeias de abastecimento Norte-Americanas. A indústria automóvel e a siderurgia, outrora ineficientes e mantidas a funcionar por barreiras comerciais proteccionistas, são hoje altamente produtivas e prósperas.

Como tantos outros países, de início o México foi duramente atingido pela concorrência Chinesa nos mercados globais, especialmente depois da China se ter tornado membro da Organização Mundial do Comércio, no fim de 2001. Mesmo assim, a proximidade do México ao mercado dos EUA e às suas conservadoras políticas monetárias, fiscais e laborais forneceram uma protecção significativa.

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