Мексика после поражения PRI: первое впечатление бывает только раз

КЕМБРИДЖ: Давайте воздадим по заслугам: уходящий мексиканский президент Эрнесто Седильо обеспечил как политическую открытость, так и экономическую стабильность, открывшую Мексике возможность прыжка к полноценной демократии. До последнего момента сохранялись оправданные опасения в том, что PRI (Institutional Revolutionary Party - Институционная Революционная Партия) могла бы снова одержать нечестную победу на выборах. В конце концов, именно этим последние 71 год и занималась PRI, удерживая власть и сохраняя возможность систематически грабить государство. В этот раз случилось по-другому. Кандидат от оппозиции одержал подавляющую победу и получил "добро" на проведение демократического курса и радикально новых начинаний во всех областях. Эмоциональный подъем в Мексике сумел привести к переменам.

Но настоящие сложности только начинаются. Новоизбранный президент Висенте Фокс, не слишком искушенный, не имеющий команды и по большей части с отсутствующей программой (не считая желания победить PRI), вскоре обнаружит, что первое впечатление бывает только раз. Несомненно, всегда легче побеждать, нежели руководить. С приходом реальной демократии задача управления экономикой усложнится еще больше из-за необходимости идти на компромиссы, усложнившегося контроля за бюджетом и увеличивающегося соблазна принимать простые решения.

С приходом в Мексику полноценной демократии, после недолгой эйфории рынки капитала быстро начнут задавать непростые вопросы. Новоизбранный президент Фокс должен будет либо провести широкомасштабные реформы, либо же следовать традиционной стратегии "лучшее - враг хорошего", т.е. сохранять в правительстве группу правящих технократов,

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