Vzkaz pro ECB: Nechoďte ve stopách Fedu

Současné dilema Federálního rezervního systému USA, který musí pokračovat ve zvyšování úrokových sazeb navzdory škodám, jež na hospodářství USA napáchaly hurikány, je důrazným poselstvím pro Evropskou centrální banku.

Po déletrvajícím období měnové stability při nezvykle nízkých úrokových sazbách má příliš dlouhé otálení se zvyšováním sazeb na obvyklejší a přiměřenější úroveň nebezpečné důsledky. Federální rezervní systém nejprve úrokové sazby snížil na působivě nízké hodnoty – zčásti kvůli neopodstatněným obavám z deflace – a poté příliš pozdě zahájil proces normalizace úrokových sazeb. Teď musí ve zvyšování sazeb vytrvat, třebaže existují náznaky – například upadající spotřebitelská důvěra v USA –, že americké hospodářství může ochabovat. ECB se nesmí dopustit téže chyby.

Varovných signálů o blížící se inflaci je v hospodářství eurozóny víc než dost. Růst peněžní zásoby už jistou dobu zřetelně přesahuje cílové úrovně, což poukazuje na stav přebytečné likvidity. Celková zářijová inflace na úrovni 2,5% překročila 2% cíl ECB – a totéž platí pro zatím poslední prognózu inflace v roce 2006 (aktualizované prognózy vyjdou prvního prosince). Hrozí, že stoupající ceny energií prosáknou do všeobecného inflačního procesu.

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