Fusiones y secuelas

BRUSELAS – Las metáforas utilizadas durante la crisis financiera del período  2008-2009 –terremoto, maremoto, fusión, cisne negro y secuelas– están de vuelta y con fuerza, pero ahora se las está reciclando, literalmente. De hecho, la crisis financiera y la crisis nuclear en la central nuclear de Fukushima, en el Japón, comparten al menos cuatro similitudes:

  • La metáfora del “cisne negro” sugiere que esos sucesos reflejan la dificultad para evaluar correctamente los riesgos de sistemas complejos.
  • Los reglamentadores demostraron su incapacidad para pronosticar y prevenir las crisis.
  • Las “secuelas” son de naturaleza potencialmente transfronteriza.
  • Se socializarán parcialmente los costos que entrañarán las consecuencias de la imprudencia de las empresas.

Desde luego, el grado 9 de magnitud del terremotó que afectó al Japón es un suceso sumamente excepcional: un suceso tan poco frecuente, que no se puede evaluar con modelos basados en datos históricos limitados. Los acontecimientos muy poco probables, pero que tienen importantes repercusiones –llamadas “riesgos posteriores a largo plazo”–, también han estado en el centro de la crisis financiera.

Una causa de la crisis financiera fue el deseo de las entidades financieras de seleccionar (y, en algunos casos, crear) productos con réditos superiores a la media en tiempos normales, pero pérdidas excesivas en casos excepcionales. Las centrales nucleares antiguas en zonas sísmicas tienen una estructura similar de amortización. Además, tanto el modelo financiero como el nuclear no parecen haber servido para apreciar correctamente las correlaciones entre riesgos diferentes.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/KZhFlVU/es;
  1. Chris J Ratcliffe/Getty Images

    The Brexit Surrender

    European Union leaders meeting in Brussels have given the go-ahead to talks with Britain on post-Brexit trade relations. But, as European Council President Donald Tusk has said, the most difficult challenge – forging a workable deal that secures broad political support on both sides – still lies ahead.

  2. The Great US Tax Debate

    ROBERT J. BARRO vs. JASON FURMAN & LAWRENCE H. SUMMERS on the impact of the GOP tax  overhaul.


    • Congressional Republicans are finalizing a tax-reform package that will reshape the business environment by lowering the corporate-tax rate and overhauling deductions. 

    • But will the plan's far-reaching changes provide the boost to investment and growth that its backers promise?


    ROBERT J. BARRO | How US Corporate Tax Reform Will Boost Growth

    JASON FURMAN & LAWRENCE H. SUMMERS | Robert Barro's Tax Reform Advocacy: A Response

  3. Murdoch's Last Stand?

    Rupert Murdoch’s sale of 21st Century Fox’s entertainment assets to Disney for $66 billion may mark the end of the media mogul’s career, which will long be remembered for its corrosive effect on democratic discourse on both sides of the Atlantic. 

    From enabling the rise of Donald Trump to hacking the telephone of a murdered British schoolgirl, Murdoch’s media empire has staked its success on stoking populist rage.

  4. Bank of England Leon Neal/Getty Images

    The Dangerous Delusion of Price Stability

    Since the hyperinflation of the 1970s, which central banks were right to combat by whatever means necessary, maintaining positive but low inflation has become a monetary-policy obsession. But, because the world economy has changed dramatically since then, central bankers have started to miss the monetary-policy forest for the trees.

  5. Harvard’s Jeffrey Frankel Measures the GOP’s Tax Plan

    Jeffrey Frankel, a professor at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government and a former member of President Bill Clinton’s Council of Economic Advisers, outlines the five criteria he uses to judge the efficacy of tax reform efforts. And in his view, the US Republicans’ most recent offering fails miserably.

  6. A box containing viles of human embryonic Stem Cell cultures Sandy Huffaker/Getty Images

    The Holy Grail of Genetic Engineering

    CRISPR-Cas – a gene-editing technique that is far more precise and efficient than any that has come before it – is poised to change the world. But ensuring that those changes are positive – helping to fight tumors and mosquito-borne illnesses, for example – will require scientists to apply the utmost caution.

  7. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now