Fusiones y secuelas

BRUSELAS – Las metáforas utilizadas durante la crisis financiera del período  2008-2009 –terremoto, maremoto, fusión, cisne negro y secuelas– están de vuelta y con fuerza, pero ahora se las está reciclando, literalmente. De hecho, la crisis financiera y la crisis nuclear en la central nuclear de Fukushima, en el Japón, comparten al menos cuatro similitudes:

  • La metáfora del “cisne negro” sugiere que esos sucesos reflejan la dificultad para evaluar correctamente los riesgos de sistemas complejos.
  • Los reglamentadores demostraron su incapacidad para pronosticar y prevenir las crisis.
  • Las “secuelas” son de naturaleza potencialmente transfronteriza.
  • Se socializarán parcialmente los costos que entrañarán las consecuencias de la imprudencia de las empresas.

Desde luego, el grado 9 de magnitud del terremotó que afectó al Japón es un suceso sumamente excepcional: un suceso tan poco frecuente, que no se puede evaluar con modelos basados en datos históricos limitados. Los acontecimientos muy poco probables, pero que tienen importantes repercusiones –llamadas “riesgos posteriores a largo plazo”–, también han estado en el centro de la crisis financiera.

Una causa de la crisis financiera fue el deseo de las entidades financieras de seleccionar (y, en algunos casos, crear) productos con réditos superiores a la media en tiempos normales, pero pérdidas excesivas en casos excepcionales. Las centrales nucleares antiguas en zonas sísmicas tienen una estructura similar de amortización. Además, tanto el modelo financiero como el nuclear no parecen haber servido para apreciar correctamente las correlaciones entre riesgos diferentes.

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