Измеряя революционную волну

НЬЮ-ЙОРК. Прогноз, сделанный три месяца назад о том, что народные протесты вскоре свергнут диктатуру в Тунисе, отстранят от власти в Египте Хосни Мубарака, спровоцируют гражданскую войну в Ливии Муаммара Каддафи, а также приведут в замешательство режимы от Марокко до Йемена, вызвал бы серьезный скептицизм. Мы знали, что фитиль был сухим, но мы не знали, как или когда он воспламенится. Теперь, когда это произошло, как далеко может распространиться пламя?

Некоторые комментаторы стали называть этот момент «арабской весной», пробуждением, которое может навсегда подорвать самодержавие на Ближнем Востоке. Эффект домино кажется очевидным. В странах региона проживает слишком много молодых людей, и там слишком мало рабочих мест. Цены на продовольствие растут. Коррупция вызывает гнев.

В Египте молодые люди, вдохновленные изображениями спутникового телевидения, а также получившие поддержку посредством современных средств связи, разожгли и поддержали огонь. Учитывая доступность этих технологий, их способность катализировать протест может преодолеть границы, которые некогда казались неприступными.

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