Mesurer la vague révolutionnaire

NEW YORK – Si l’on avait prédit il y a trois mois que les manifestations populaires allaient bientôt renverser la dictature en Tunisie, chasser Hosni Moubarak du pouvoir en Égypte, provoquer une guerre civile dans la Libye de Mouammar Kadhafi et faire trembler les régimes du Maroc au Yémen, ce pronostic aurait été reçu avec un profond scepticisme. Nous savions que l’amadou était sec, mais nous ne pouvions savoir comment ni quant il allait précisément bruler. Maintenant que c’est le cas, jusqu’où ces flammes se propageront-elles ?

Certains commentateurs ont baptisé ce moment le « printemps arabe, » un éveil qui pourrait invalider définitivement l’autocratie dans tout le Moyen-Orient. L’effet de contagion semble évident. Les pays de la région ont un trop grand nombre de jeunes et trop peu d’emplois. Les prix alimentaires augmentent. La corruption alimente la colère.

En Égypte, les jeunes, inspirés par les images de la télévision satellitaire et renforcés par les moyens de communication modernes, ont allumé et attisé le feu. Compte tenu de la facilité d’accès à ces technologies, leur capacité à catalyser la protestation peut transcender des frontières jusqu’alors estimées imprenables.

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