Brexit Dan Kitwood/Getty Images

英国退出的意义

纽约—英国退出投票是一次三重示威:依次是反对移民涌入、伦敦金融城和欧盟机构。英国退出将产生重要后果。唐纳德·特朗普的美国总统选战将赢得巨大的推动,其他反移民民粹主义政客亦然。此外,脱离欧盟将伤害到英国经济,并很可能导致苏格兰脱离英国——更不用说对欧洲一体化的未来的影响了。

因此,英国退出是一次分水岭事件,表明需要一种新型的全球化,它应该远远强于被英国民意拒绝的现状。

究其核心,英国退出反映了高收入世界的一个普遍现象:对宣扬严厉打击移民的民粹主义政党的支持日益兴盛。在欧洲和美国,大约一半人口(大多为工人阶级选民),认为移民已经失控,成为公共秩序和文化规范的一大威胁。

5月英国退出选战期间,有报道说2015年英国净移民流入为333,000人,是此前政府宣布的100,000人目标的三倍多。与此同时,叙利亚难民危机、叙利亚移民实施的恐怖袭击和早前移民孩子的不满,以及广为流传的德国和其他国家移民对妇女和女孩的袭击的报道不绝于耳。

在美国,特朗普的支持者也将矛头指向了1,100万未注册居民(主要为西班牙裔),他们绝大多数过着和平的生活,从事生产性生计,但没有合法签证和工作许可。对许多特朗普的支持者而言,关于最近的奥兰多袭击的关键事实是袭击者身为阿富汗穆斯林移民之子,并且带着反美情绪实施行动(尽管用自动武器进行大规模杀戮活动实在是,唉,太“美国”了)。

关于英国退出将降低收入水平的警告要么错误地被认为是杞人忧天式的散布恐慌,要么与脱欧阵营在边境控制上的更大的利益有关。但是,一个主要因素是隐性阶级斗争。工人阶级“脱欧”支持者认为,不管发生什么,大部分或全部收入损失都将由富人承担,特别是受到千夫所指的伦敦金融城银行家。

The World’s Opinion Page

Help support Project Syndicate’s mission

subscribe now

美国人对华尔街及其贪婪并且常常属于犯罪的行为的鄙夷一点都不亚于英国工人阶级对伦敦金融城。这也是特朗普对其11月总统大选的竞争对手希拉里·克林顿的竞选优势之一。克林顿获得候选人资格,华尔街金主出力甚多。克林顿应该引起注意,保持与华尔街的距离。

在英国,两股强大的政治潮流——拒绝移民和阶级斗争——又加入了欧盟机构无能的普遍情绪。欧盟机构诚然无能。只消看看过去六年来自私短视的欧盟政客在希腊危机上的处置失当便可一窥端倪。不难理解,持续的欧元区动荡足以让数百万英国选民离心离德。

英国退出的短期后果已经一目了然:英镑暴跌至31年来低点。在短期,伦敦金融城将面对巨大的不确定性、工作岗位流失和奖金急剧缩水。英国房地产价值将冷却。对欧洲的可能的长期连带效应是巨大的,包括苏格兰独立、加泰罗尼亚独立、欧盟内部人员不再能够自由迁移、反移民政治兴起(包括特朗普和法国的马琳·勒庞(Marine Le Pen)可能当选)等。其他国家也可能进行全民公决,其中一些可能选择脱欧。

在欧洲,已经出现了对英国杀一儆百的呼声——已警告考虑同样做法的国家。欧洲政治蠢态尽露(在希腊问题上亦是如此)。反之,欧盟其余部分应该深思显而易见的不足并填补它们。惩罚英国——比如拒绝其进入欧洲单一市场——只能导致欧盟继续解体。

那么,应该做些什么?我将提出一些措施,既是为了降低短期灾难性反馈环的风险,也是为了尽量扩大长期改革收益。

首先,通过立刻结束叙利亚战争阻止难民激增。这可以通过结束中央情报局-沙特合作推翻巴沙尔·阿萨德的行动实现,从而让阿萨德(在俄罗斯和伊朗的支持下)打败伊斯兰国、稳定叙利亚(并在相邻的伊拉克采取类似方针)。美国沉迷于颠覆政权(在阿富汗、伊拉克、利比亚和叙利亚都是如此)是欧洲难民危机的深层次根源。停止沉迷于此就有可能让最近的移民返回家园。

其次,停止北约向乌克兰和格鲁吉亚扩张。与俄罗斯的新冷战是另一个美国炮制、欧洲天真跟进的错误。关闭北约扩张的大门有可能缓和紧张和对俄关系正常化、稳定乌克兰并重新将注意力集中于欧洲经济和欧洲工程。

第三,不要惩罚英国。相反,监管国家和欧盟边境,阻止非法移民涌入。这不是仇外、种族主义或狂热主义。全世界社会福利最慷慨的国家(西欧)必须对数百万(事实上,是数亿)潜在移民说不,这是常识。美国亦然。

第四,重新建立不满的工人阶级和生计受金融危机和工作岗位外包影响的群体的公平感和机会感。这意味着遵循社会民主思想,投入足够的社会开支于卫生、教育、培训、学徒制和家庭支持,资金可以来自对富人课税和取缔避税港,后者导致公共收入流失,也加剧了经济不公。这还意味着给予希腊债务纾困,从而结束漫长的欧元区危机。

第四,重视低收入国家的经济发展资源(包括增加援助)而不是战争。如果气候变化、极端贫困和缺乏技能和教育破坏了亚洲、中美和加勒比地区、中东以及中亚的发展潜力,来自当今贫穷和冲突影响地区的失控的移民流将变得不可阻挡,不管采取什么移民政策。

所有这些都强调需要从战争战略转向可持续发展战略,特别是美国和欧洲。高墙和藩篱不能阻止数百万移民逃离暴力、极端贫困、饥饿、疾病、干旱、洪水和其他状况。唯有全球合作可以。

http://prosyn.org/AwK6fBv/zh;
  1. Television sets showing a news report on Xi Jinping's speech Anthony Wallace/Getty Images

    Empowering China’s New Miracle Workers

    China’s success in the next five years will depend largely on how well the government manages the tensions underlying its complex agenda. In particular, China’s leaders will need to balance a muscular Communist Party, setting standards and protecting the public interest, with an empowered market, driving the economy into the future.

  2. United States Supreme Court Hisham Ibrahim/Getty Images

    The Sovereignty that Really Matters

    The preference of some countries to isolate themselves within their borders is anachronistic and self-defeating, but it would be a serious mistake for others, fearing contagion, to respond by imposing strict isolation. Even in states that have succumbed to reductionist discourses, much of the population has not.

  3.  The price of Euro and US dollars Daniel Leal Olivas/Getty Images

    Resurrecting Creditor Adjustment

    When the Bretton Woods Agreement was hashed out in 1944, it was agreed that countries with current-account deficits should be able to limit temporarily purchases of goods from countries running surpluses. In the ensuing 73 years, the so-called "scarce-currency clause" has been largely forgotten; but it may be time to bring it back.

  4. Leaders of the Russian Revolution in Red Square Keystone France/Getty Images

    Trump’s Republican Collaborators

    Republican leaders have a choice: they can either continue to collaborate with President Donald Trump, thereby courting disaster, or they can renounce him, finally putting their country’s democracy ahead of loyalty to their party tribe. They are hardly the first politicians to face such a decision.

  5. Angela Merkel, Theresa May and Emmanuel Macron John Thys/Getty Images

    How Money Could Unblock the Brexit Talks

    With talks on the UK's withdrawal from the EU stalled, negotiators should shift to the temporary “transition” Prime Minister Theresa May officially requested last month. Above all, the negotiators should focus immediately on the British budget contributions that will be required to make an orderly transition possible.

  6. Ksenia Sobchak Mladlen Antonov/Getty Images

    Is Vladimir Putin Losing His Grip?

    In recent decades, as President Vladimir Putin has entrenched his authority, Russia has seemed to be moving backward socially and economically. But while the Kremlin knows that it must reverse this trajectory, genuine reform would be incompatible with the kleptocratic character of Putin’s regime.

  7. Right-wing parties hold conference Thomas Lohnes/Getty Images

    Rage Against the Elites

    • With the advantage of hindsight, four recent books bring to bear diverse perspectives on the West’s current populist moment. 
    • Taken together, they help us to understand what that moment is and how it arrived, while reminding us that history is contingent, not inevitable


    Global Bookmark

    Distinguished thinkers review the world’s most important new books on politics, economics, and international affairs.

  8. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin Bill Clark/Getty Images

    Don’t Bank on Bankruptcy for Banks

    As a part of their efforts to roll back the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act, congressional Republicans have approved a measure that would have courts, rather than regulators, oversee megabank bankruptcies. It is now up to the Trump administration to decide if it wants to set the stage for a repeat of the Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008.