haykel11_Bandar-Algaloud_--Saudi-Royal-Council_Anadolu-Agency_Getty-Images_mohammed-bin-salman

Игра престолов в Саудовской Аравии

Jun 24, 2017 Bernard Haykel

ПРИНСТОН – Король Саудовской Аравии Салман объявил новым наследным принцем своего 31-летнего сына Мухаммеда ибн Салмана вместо 57-летнего Мухаммада ибн Наифа, тем самым завершив процесс централизации власти, который начался сразу после восхождения Салмана на королевский престол в январе 2015 года.

Принц Мухаммед, которого в западных кругах сокращённо называют MBS, – любимый сын короля. Назначив его наследным принцем, Салман, которому сейчас 81 год, положил конец длительной, насчитывающей десятилетия, традиции формирования консенсуса между ключевыми сыновьями основателя саудовского государства, покойного короля Абдул-Азиза ибн Сауда.

Если говорить в структурных терминах, Саудовская Аравия перестала быть геронтократией с разделённой властью. Она вернулась к режиму абсолютной монархии, которой уже была при короле ибн Сауде. Теперь власть целиком сконцентрирована в руках короля, который делегировал большинство полномочий сыну, новому наследному принцу.

We hope you're enjoying Project Syndicate.

To continue reading, subscribe now.

Already have an account? Log in

Support High-Quality Commentary

US President-elect Joe Biden may have promised a “return to normalcy,” but the truth is that there is no going back. The world is changing in fundamental ways, and the actions the world takes in the next few years will be critical to lay the groundwork for a sustainable, secure, and prosperous future.

For more than 25 years, Project Syndicate has been guided by a simple credo: All people deserve access to a broad range of views by the world’s foremost leaders and thinkers on the issues, events, and forces shaping their lives. At a time of unprecedented uncertainty, that mission is more important than ever – and we remain committed to fulfilling it.

But there is no doubt that we, like so many other media organizations nowadays, are under growing strain. If you are in a position to support us, please subscribe now.

As a subscriber, you will enjoy unlimited access to our On Point suite of long reads and book reviews, Say More contributor interviews, The Year Ahead magazine, the full PS archive, and much more. You will also directly support our mission of delivering the highest-quality commentary on the world's most pressing issues to as wide an audience as possible.

By helping us to build a truly open world of ideas, every PS subscriber makes a real difference. Thank you.

Subscribe Now

Donald Trump’s Flying Circus PS OnPoint
Eric Feferberg/AFP/Getty Images

Donald Trump’s Flying Circus

PS editors After US President Donald Trump’s month of scandal, and a week abroad, PS commentators provide insight into the state of America’s global leadership.

12
Can Saudi Arabia Reform Itself? PS OnPoint
Anadolu Agency

Can Saudi Arabia Reform Itself?

Bernard Haykel reviews the Kingdom's plans to ween itself off of oil, and finds it lacking on the political front.

1
Saudi Arabia’s Bold Vision for Economic Diversification
Ian Timberlake/Stringer

Saudi Arabia’s Bold Vision for Economic Diversification

Mohamed A. El-Erian thinks that the Kingdom's new Vision 2030 agenda could be an inspiration to the entire region.

14

new comment has been posted. new comments have been posted.

0 Comments on this paragraph, 6 in all 6 Comments on this article

ROHIT CHANDAVARKER Jun 26, 2017

The ascension of MBS was inevitable though earlier than expected. The ouster of MBN might come to haunt the Govt. in future given his adroit handling of interior ministry & counter terrorism successes. MBS is now in charge of every arm of the Govt. & the nickname , Mr. Everything, seems apt.
Vision 2030 is undoubtedly a transformational concept which, if successful, would catapult Saudi Arabia into a non oil dependent economy with drastic changes to its social & cultural ethos. However, one is deeply sceptical of its success, even moderately, given the headwinds it faces from a cross section of Saudis including the powerful clergy. The huge fiscal deficit of $98 billion last year jolted the Govt. into working out structural reforms, unheard of since the country's inception. Divestment of 5% of Saudi Aramco would be a herculean task given its secretive nature of working.
MBS has embarked on reforms styled on the lines of UAE following lead taken by his friend Mohammad bin Nahyan of Abu Dhabi. One doubts if MBS would be able to replicate Dubai's landscape in Saudi, though.
The challenges MBS faces are huge & many, with some of his own making.
First is the involvement in Yemen and its toll on Saudi economy. Having charged into battle with presumably little thinking, MBS is now caught in a Catch 22 situation in Yemen with a stalemate that refuses to break, thereby bleeding his already hurting economy. Antipathy towards Iran is taking the form of robust adventurism with little planning & wisdom. Egged on by the recent bonhomie shown by Trump, MBS has, along with UAE, Egypt & Bahrain, sought to punish Qatar. This standoff within GCC members is unlikely to resolve in a hurry given the ratcheting up of the issue. The 13 demands that Qatar has to abide by seem unreasonable & unimplementable. Qatar, meanwhile, seems certain to tilt towards Iran & Turkey. Ironically, Saudis intended to isolate Iran in the Middle East but is now taking centrestage. The supposed billions of dollars of arms sales by US is mostly earlier commitments by previous US administrations & mean little is real terms. The famed Arab coalition that Saudis initiated is likely to wither away with a split within the Sunni coalition members over the Qatar imbroglio. Pakistan's Raheel Sharif heading the coalition's military is unlikely to take decisive decisions given Pakistan's relations with not only Qatar, but also Iran.
The freeze on Saudi salaries of civil servants had to be lifted under domestic pressure. And the powerful clergy is wary of MBS' moves to reform society especially women's rights.
Hence, MBS has his task cut out with little time to recoup or ponder. Hitting the ground running with little help from peers is bound to create pressure, though one hopes he succeeds, for Saudis' sake.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Paul Aarts Jun 26, 2017

Why does the author not spend even one word on Mohammad bin Salman's disastrous adventure in Yemen?
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
j. von Hettlingen Jun 25, 2017

Bernard Haykel points out the qualities Mohammed bin Salman (MSB) possesses, that allow him to be named as heir to the Saudi throne last week. Despite his young age, the 31 year-old is said to have "wit, guile, and force of personality to consolidate power and assert his authority over key sectors of Saudi society."
The author says, MSB's humility enabled a "smooth" transition from the one crown prince to another, replacing his cousin Mohammed bin Nayif. He fell to his knees to kiss his predecessor's hand, prompting Nayif to "offer his allegiance to MSB." Inviting Trump to Saudi Arabia was another feat that had impressed his father, King Salman. The visit had improved the US-Saudi relationship, which reached a nadir under Obama.
Apart from being the King's favourite son, MSB seems have a plan to bring social and economic change - Vision 2030. It aims "to diversify the Saudi economy, by reducing its heavy dependence on oil revenues." MSB is managing the overhaul of an ailing economy and the reduction of the country's lavish subsidies. He has also proposed the partial privatisation of the state-owned oil company, Aramco and invited foreigners to invest in the Kingdom. Young people support the abolition of the much feared religious police and the opening up of a closed society.
The other goal is to turn Saudi Arabia into "a regional military hegemon that can stand up to external threats, not least Iran. To do this, he will have to make his country far less dependent on US military protection, on which it has relied since 1945." This ambition raises widespread concern not only in the region but also across the globe. While MSB's ascendency gives hopes of reform, he is also known for being a hothead.
In May MSB gave an interview, offering a glimpse into how he viewed Iran, Saudi Arabia's arch enemy. He said there was no space for dialogue with Iran due to its ambitions “to control the Islamic world”. Outlining the tensions in sectarian terms, he said it was Tehran’s goal “to control the Islamic world” and to spread its Shia doctrine in preparation for the arrival of a revered imam named Mohammed al-Mahdi. Shia Muslims believe al-Mahdi, the 12th and last Shia imam, who disappeared in the ninth century, will one day reappear to bring justice to the world. It's doubtful if young Iranians believe in the return of Mahdi.
When asked if he saw a possibility for direct dialogue with Iran, the prince replied: “How can I come to an understanding with someone, or a regime, that has an anchoring belief built on an extremist ideology? What are the interests between us? How can I come to an understanding with this?”
Iran and Saudi Arabia are two key players backing opposite sides in their proxy wars in Syria and Yemen. They also support political adversaries in Lebanon, Bahrain and Iraq, escalating the conflicts and deepening the Sunni/Shia schism on both sides.
Ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran have been strained since Iran’s 1979 revolution. The Saudis fear the growing influence of a newly-strident Iran over the Shia population in their oil-rich Eastern Province and the Muslim world. The dispute between the two nations has deep religious, historic and political roots. Iran and Saudi Arabia are on opposing sides of a more than 1,000-year old argument at the heart of Islam. Tensions escalated in recent years when Iran became furious with a deadly stampede during 2015 Hajj pilgrimage and a more assertive Saudi foreign policy since King Salman took charge. Then there was the row over the execution of Sheikh Nimr. The two countries severed diplomatic and trade ties. Now Qatar is being thrown under the bus for its economic cooperation with Iran. This diplomatic row between Qatar and its neigbours may bear MSB's signature. Given his young age and impetuousness, uncertain times lie ahead of the Middle East for years to come.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Shakir Mumtaz Jun 25, 2017

There is very strong possibility of a coup due to the ongoing power struggle. MBS's Youth in a gerontocratic set up may prove to be a cause of intense resentment among those vying for power.

Given the opportunity, MBS might be able to redirect the economic orientation but may not be able to make KSA an area military hegemon as it does not have the army personnel capable of carrying out such a role.
shakir2.wordpress.com
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Hamed Nikhalat Jahromi Jun 24, 2017

Very good points are raised here.

But I have several disagreements:

1. I do not think the “… MBS’s power base is … secure”. About six months ago several high-ranking princes wrote a letter to King Salam telling him about their concern that Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) is consolidating power. I hear that Mohammed bin Nayif is under house arrest after bayʿah which means the bayʿah has been under pressure – presence of an armed bodyguard in the bayʿah, a very uncommon thing, strengthens this suspicion. I think, out of respect for the king, princes have stayed quite so far but there is a very good chance they are going to make a move against MbS after the king dies.

2. I disagree that “… MBS managed all of this while still formally adhering to the Saudi royal family’s strict protocols and elaborate codes of hierarchy”. This is why there has developed an allegiance of high-ranking princes against him.

3. I do not think Vision 2030 intends to or can create “… good jobs …”. The Vision wants to create usual jobs in health care, tourism, etc. to be filled by Saudi subjects. But the problem is Saudis are used to high-paying, easy public-sector jobs with fancy titles – these are good jobs in their view. A major challenge to Vision 2030 is therefore getting Saudis to work in Burger King – many commentators, and I agree with them, consider such a shift in the behaviour of Saudis unrealistic.

In conclusion:

a. MbS’s power most likely will be challenged after King Salman. If he really wants to secure his power base he must get King Salman to abdicate the throne. This way MbS can establish himself as the king while his father is still alive.

b. Failure in delivering Vision 2030 goals, something that increasingly seems likely – he recently had to roll back on some key National Transformational Plan goals, will substantially weaken MbS’s place in the Royal Family and among Saudis in the years to come. He has to quickly think of ways to contain the situation when this happens, a problem that does not seem easy to tackle.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Hamed Nikhalat Jahromi Jun 24, 2017

Very good points are raised here.

But I have several disagreements:

1. I do not think the “… MBS’s power base is … secure”. About six months ago several high-ranking princes wrote a letter to King Salam telling him about their concern that Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) is consolidating power. I hear that Mohammed bin Nayif is under house arrest after bayʿah which means the bayʿah has been under pressure – presence of an armed bodyguard in the bayʿah, a very uncommon thing, strengthens this suspicion. I think, out of respect for the king, princes have stayed quite so far but there is a very good chance they are going to make a move against MbS after the king dies.
2. I disagree that “… MBS managed all of this while still formally adhering to the Saudi royal family’s strict protocols and elaborate codes of hierarchy”. This is why there has developed an allegiance of high-ranking princes against him.
3. I do not think Vision 2030 intends to or can create “… good jobs …”. The Vision wants to create usual jobs in health care, tourism, etc. to be filled by Saudi subjects. But the problem is Saudis are used to high-paying, easy public-sector jobs with fancy titles – these are good jobs in their view. A major challenge to Vision 2030 is therefore getting Saudis to work in Burger King – many commentators, and I agree with them, consider such a shift in the behaviour of Saudis unrealistic.

In conclusion: (i) MbS’s power most likely will be challenged after King Salman. If he really wants to secure his power base he must get King Salman to abdicate the power. This way MbS can establish himself as the king and systematically destroy his opposition while his father is still alive. (ii) Failure in delivering Vision 2030 goals, something that increasingly seems likely – he recently had to roll back on some key National Transformational Plan goals, will substantially weaken MbS’s place in the Royal Family and among Saudis in the years to come. He has to quickly think of ways to contain the situation.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.

https://prosyn.org/tOpmb2Gru

Cookies and Privacy

Игра престолов в Саудовской Аравии

To continue reading, subscribe now.

Support High-Quality Commentary

Donald Trump’s Flying Circus

Can Saudi Arabia Reform Itself?

Saudi Arabia’s Bold Vision for Economic Diversification

New Comment

Email this piece to a friend

Contact us

Handpicked to read next

The Arab World’s Coming Challenges

Log in/Register

Cookies and Privacy

Игра престолов в Саудовской Аравии

To continue reading, subscribe now.

Support High-Quality Commentary

Handpicked to read next

Edit Newsletter Preferences

Set up Notification