Saudi crown prince Mohammad-bin-Salman Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

A1Las nuevas ropas del príncipe heredero

PARÍS – En junio, Arabia Saudita, Bahréin, Egipto, los Emiratos Árabes Unidos, Libia, Maldivas y Yemen cortaron relaciones diplomáticas y económicas con Qatar. Esta crisis del Golfo terminará, de un modo u otro. Pero todavía está por verse que sea en un modo favorable a su principal instigador, el príncipe heredero saudita Mohammed bin Salmán (MBS).

Una solución extrema, pero improbable, sería un cambio de régimen por la vía militar, por el que el emir de Qatar, jeque Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, fuera sustituido con un miembro de la familia Al Thani más influenciable. Una posibilidad más cercana es que Qatar deje de ser refugio de unos pocos miembros de la Hermandad Musulmana y de Hamás, y prometa disimuladamente poner freno a Al Jazeera, la red de televisión financiada por el estado qatarí, que transmite en toda la región.

Con la segunda hipótesis, los diplomáticos de Kuwait y Omán que median en la disputa se mostrarían como pacificadores, y MBS como estadista. Los gobiernos occidentales preocupados por el precio del petróleo y el futuro de la base aérea estadounidense de Al Udeid en Qatar dormirían más tranquilos, al menos hasta la próxima crisis del Golfo. Una crisis que tal vez no esté tan lejos, si MBS sigue con sus políticas impetuosas y Qatar no deja de usar su riqueza petrolera para tratar de subir de liga en la política regional.

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