Saudi crown prince Mohammad-bin-Salman Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

Les nouveaux habits du Prince héritier

PARIS – En juin dernier, Bahreïn, l'Égypte, la Libye, les Maldives, l'Arabie saoudite, les Émirats Arabes Unis et le Yémen ont interrompu leurs relations économiques et diplomatiques avec le Qatar. Cette crise du Golfe va prendre fin d'une manière ou d'une autre. Mais nul ne sait dire encore si cet effet sera bon pour le chef de l'instigateur de la crise, le Prince Mohammed ben Salman d'Arabie saoudite (MBS).

Une solution extrême mais peu probable à la crise pourrait prendre la forme d'un changement de régime imposé par la force armée, où l'Émir du Qatar, le Cheikh Tamim ben Hamad Al-Thani, serait remplacé par un membre plus souple de la famille Al-Thani. Dans un scénario plus probable, le Qatar pourrait cesser de donner asile à quelques membres des Frères musulmans et du Hamas et discrètement promettre de mettre un frein à Al Jazeera, son réseau de télévision financé par l'État, qui diffuse dans toute la région.

Dans le dernier scénario, les diplomates du Koweït et d'Oman, qui sont des médiateurs dans ce différend, se présenteraient comme des pacificateurs et MBS pourrait prétendre au titre d'homme d'État. Les gouvernements occidentaux inquiets des prix du pétrole et de l'avenir de la base aérienne américaine d'Al Udeid au Qatar seraient plus tranquilles, du moins jusqu'à la prochaine crise du Golfe. Mais si MBS continue de mener des politiques obstinées et si le Qatar continue d'utiliser sa richesse pétrolière pour boxer dans la catégorie supérieure à la sienne dans la politique régionale, une crise de ce genre risque de ne pas se faire attendre bien longtemps.

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