Pedro Molina

De San Francisco al mar de China Meridional

OSAKA – Disputas territoriales y marítimas entre China, Taiwán y varios países del sudeste asiático agitan la región del mar de China Meridional, y no hay solución a la vista. La situación es difícil, pero puede mantenerse en el tiempo, siempre que los actores involucrados adopten medidas serias para fortalecer la confianza a través de foros multilaterales y, al mismo tiempo, mantengan un poder de disuasión eficaz de cara a China y se comprometan a evitar el uso ofensivo de la fuerza.

Naturalmente, China está muy interesada en evitar la interferencia de grandes potencias extrarregionales (particularmente Estados Unidos) y prefiere negociar en forma bilateral con contendientes regionales más débiles, a los que puede dominar más fácilmente. Pero las potencias extrarregionales justifican su participación citando la Convención de las Naciones Unidas sobre el Derecho del Mar (en concreto, lo referido a la libertad de navegación y el derecho a paso inocente).

Las disputas en el mar de China Meridional surgen de la existencia de reclamos superpuestos sobre “zonas económicas exclusivas” (no sobre el océano abierto), de modo que la convención de las Naciones Unidas no es del todo pertinente. Pero hay otro tratado internacional que sí ofrece pistas para la solución de estas disputas: el Tratado de Paz de San Francisco, vigente desde 1952, que marcó el fin oficial de la Segunda Guerra Mundial en la región de Asia y el Pacífico.

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