Die Möglichkeiten der arabischen Welt

AMMAN – Nach ihrem Erwachen im Jahr 2011 hätte das Ziel der arabischen Welt in erster Linie darin bestehen sollen, Pluralismus und Demokratie zu stärken – Werte, die beim ersten antikolonialen Erwachen im 20. Jahrhundert vernachlässigt worden waren. Aber auch nach drei mühsamen Jahren ist dieser Prozess noch ganz am Anfang. Werden diese Ziele des zweiten arabischen Erwachens schließlich erreicht werden?

Die Antwort hängt davon ab, welches von drei Modellen die arabischen Länder als Basis für ihren Wandel wählen: ein integratives, weitsichtiges Modell, das auf Konsens abzielt; einen Ansatz, bei dem der Stärkste alles an sich reißt und einen großen Teil der Bevölkerung ausschließt; oder ein Modell, innerhalb dessen das Regime über Leichen geht, um sein Überleben zu sichern. Diese Modelle spiegeln die riesigen Unterschiede zwischen den momentanen Umständen und Zukunftsaussichten der jeweiligen arabischen Länder wider.

Das beste Beispiel für das integrative Modell ist Tunesien, wo ehemalige Gegner ohne militärisches Eingreifen eine Koalitionsregierung gebildet haben. Natürlich war der Weg dorthin nicht leicht. Aber nach heftigen Auseinandersetzungen erkannten die Tunesier, dass Fortschritt nur durch Kooperation zu erreichen war.

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