Možnosti pro arabský svět

AMMÁN – Když v roce 2011 vypuklo arabské probuzení, jeho primárním cílem mělo být prosazování plurality a demokracie – tedy věcí, které při prvním antikoloniálním probuzení arabského světa ve dvacátém století zůstaly zanedbané. Po třech letech zápasu však tento proces teprve započal. Dosáhne druhé arabské probuzení konečně svých cílů?

Odpověď závisí na tom, který ze tří modelů arabské země při řízení svého přechodu použijí: zda vstřícného a prozíravého modelu, jehož cílem je budování konsensu, nebo přístupu „vítěz bere vše“, který vyřazuje velké segmenty populace z podílu na dění, anebo přístupu „nezastavíme se před ničím“, jenž se zaměřuje na přežití režimu. Tyto modely odrážejí obrovské rozdíly v současných poměrech a budoucích vyhlídkách jednotlivých arabských zemí.

Nejsilnějším příkladem vstřícného modelu je Tunisko, kde oponenti bývalého režimu vytvořili bez vojenského zásahu koaliční vládu. Tento proces samozřejmě nebyl snadný. Po napjatém boji si však Tunisané uvědomili, že jedinou cestou vpřed je spolupráce.

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