阿拉伯世界的选择

安曼——2011年阿拉伯觉醒运动开始时的主要目的是推动多元化和民主——这是一项在20世纪阿拉伯世界首次反殖民觉醒运动中被忽略的事业。但经过3年奋斗,这项事业才刚刚起步。第二次阿拉伯觉醒运动能否最终实现目标?

答案取决于阿拉伯国家采用哪种模式来指导自身的民主过渡:是以建立共识为目的的远见卓识的包容性模式;还是将大部分民众排除在外的赢者通吃的法则;又或是以政权生存为唯一目的的不惜一切代价的做法。模式的不同反映了阿拉伯国家当前局势和未来前景的差异是多么巨大。

包容性模式最有力的实例是突尼斯,曾几何时的对手在没有任何军事干预的情况下已经组成了联合政府。当然,这一过程并不轻松。但在经历了紧张的斗争后,突尼斯人逐渐意识到合作才是唯一的出路。

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