Loic Lagard/Flickr

美国向更快增长运动

美国剑桥—去年12月,我预测2014年美国GDP增长将从此前四年每年2%的平庸水平升高到3%左右,人均增长率几乎翻番。如今,美国经济战胜了今年前几个月的恶劣天气,产出似乎回归了健康增长的节奏。

今年GDP增长加速的主要推动力是2013年家庭财富增加了10万亿美元。根据美联储的数据,其中2万亿美元来自住房价值升高,8万亿美元来自股票、非公司企业和其他净金融资产的升值。正如前美联储主席本·伯南克在他实施大规模资产购买计划(即量化宽松)时所解释的,财富的增长——以及由此带来的消费支出的增长——正是这一计划的目的。

过去的经验表明家庭财富每增长100美元可以带来消费支出的逐渐上升,直至支出水平提高大约4美元。这意味着10万亿财富增量能够将年消费支出水平提升约4,000亿美元或GDP的2.5%左右。即使这一增长中只有一半发生在2014年,也足以将总GDP增长率提高一个百分点。

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