Warum die Fed das Tempo erhöhen wird

CAMBRIDGE – Die US-Notenbank Federal Reserve hat betont, dass ihre Geldpolitik von den Wirtschaftsindikatoren bestimmt sein wird. Dennoch müssten einige extrem unwahrscheinliche Daten vorliegen, um den impliziten Plan der Fed umzustoßen, ihre Käufe langfristiger Vermögenswerte (die so genannte quantitative Lockerung) im Oktober 2014 zu beenden und irgendwann in der ersten Hälfte des Jahres 2015 mit einer Anhebung des Leitzinssatzes von seinem derzeitigen Wert von beinahe null zu beginnen.

Die Finanzmärkte sind besessen von der Frage, ob man die Zinssätze im März oder im Juni anheben wird.  Obwohl ich vermute, dass die Fed mit der Anhebung der Zinssätze im März beginnen wird, ist das Datum weniger wichtig als das Tempo der Zinserhöhung und die Frage, wie hoch dieser Wert am Ende des Jahres 2015 sein wird.

Unter den Mitgliedern des Offenmarktausschusses der Federal Reserve – der den Leitzins festsetzt -  besteht ein breites Meinungsspektrum. Im Schnitt deuteten die bei der jüngsten Sitzung des Offenmarktausschusses geäußerten Ansichten auf einen Leitzins von 1,25 bis 1,5 Prozent am Ende des Jahres 2015 hin. Sogar für Ende 2016 lag der Wert im Schnitt bei weniger als 3 Prozent.

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