Bessere Aussichten für 2014?

CAMBRIDGE – In den letzten sechs Jahren war ich skeptisch gegenüber den optimistischen Standardprognosen für das Tempo, in dem die US-Wirtschaft im darauffolgenden Jahr wachsen sollte. Wo die meisten Prognostiker und politischen Funktionäre grüne Triebe der Erholung und Grund zur Zuversicht sahen, sah ich kräftigen Gegenwind, der zu einem wirtschaftlichen Abschwung und dann zu einer suboptimalen Erholung führen würde.

Doch ich glaube, die Faktenlage für 2014 ist ausgeglichener. Obwohl es im kommenden Jahr ernsthafte Risiken für die US-Wirtschaft gibt, bestehen auch gute Aussichten, dass das Wachstum erheblich stärker sein wird, als es vor Beginn der Rezession war.

Die Wirtschaft expandierte im Spätsommer 2007 noch, als ich bei der jährlichen Konferenz der US Federal Reserve in Jackson Hole einen Vortrag über die schwerwiegenden Risiken für die wirtschaftliche Zukunft hielt. Ich warnte davor, dass die Immobilienpreise im Sommer 2006 von einem gefährlich hohen Niveau zu fallen begonnen hatten, was einen zukünftigen Einbruch der Bautätigkeit und große Vermögensverluste für die Privathaushalte bedeutete. Der Vermögensrückgang bei den Privathaushalten würde seinerseits zu geringeren Verbraucherausgaben führen, was das BIP weiter senken würde.

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