弱势欧元,强势欧洲

美国剑桥—尽管最近一些成员国表现出好转迹象,但欧元区经济仍然不尽如人意,预计今年总体GDP年增长率将略高于1%。德国的增长率也不到2%,法国、意大利和西班牙的GDP则仍处于下降状态。增长率的萎靡不振让欧元区总体失业率保持在12%的高水平上。

低增长、高失业并非欧元区唯一的问题。年通货膨胀率只有0.5%,即使是次要冲击也有可能导致它降至零以下,触发物价下跌循环。通缩将提高家庭和公司债务的真实(经通胀调整的)价值,从而抑制总需求。而需求下降反过来又会导致物价下跌加速,引发危险的物价失控。

经济学没有万灵丹。但欧元汇率的快速贬值——比如15%——能够解决欧元区现有的诸多问题。弱势欧元将提高进口成本和出口的潜在价格,从而推高欧元区总体通货膨胀率。贬值还能刺激出口、鼓励欧洲人用本地商品和服务代替进口品,从而提振欧元平均GDP增长率。尽管欧元区内部的竞争力并未发生变化,但与世界其他地区之间的外部余额(约占欧元区贸易规模的一半)将得到重大改善。

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