美国增长的未来

发自剑桥——由于家庭财富总额在2013年大幅上升,加上因2012年加税所引发的财政停滞最终得以消除,对美国经济的短期预期近来有所改善。美国如今有机会去提升实际(计入通胀后)人均GDP,使其高于自2009年夏天恢复增长四年以来平均1.7%的疲弱增长率。

当然,2014年的大幅高GDP增长并不是板上钉钉的。首先,实现这一增长需要克服长期利率突然上涨的负面影响,因为美联储在去年六月宣布将在今年结束其资产购买计划。此外,在这十年末期预算赤字上升——以及随后国家负债暴涨——的阴云也在压抑着投资和消费者支出。

但让我们把眼光放长点,看看美国经济增长在2014年后的长时期内将如何走向。国会预算办公室预测实际人均GDP增长将从最近这场衰退之前40年间的年均2.1%下降到2023至2088年间的仅仅1.6%。这一增长降速预测的主要依据是就业率相对于人口总量的下降,而这正好反映了美国社会的老龄化,出生率降低,以及依然上升但增幅逐渐减少的女性参与就业情况。虽然劳动者数量从1970到2010年间年均增加1.6%,但国会预算办公室预测在未来十年间年度就业增长会下跌到仅为0.4%。

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