希腊预算神话

美国剑桥—最近,报纸标题纷纷写道希腊将在2013年实现总体预算平衡。这则消息相当令人震惊:回想一下,2010年希腊官员老实坦白该国公共财政状况时,预算赤字超过了GDP的10%——这一数字真相大白的时刻触发了欧元区债务危机。短短三年希腊就完全抹平了赤字,这看起来过于美好了。

事实上,这确实过于美好了。只要你稍稍深读一下新闻内容,很快就能发现,关于零预算赤字的预测事实上是误导。国际货币基金组织(IMF)预测2013年为零的是希腊的“初级”预算。

 “初级”预算赤字(或盈余)是政府除必须支付的利息以外的所有花费与其得自税收和其他权力的收入之差。对希腊来说,需要支付利息的包括希腊个人和机构持有的政府债务以及IMF、欧洲央行和其他外国债权人持有的政府债务。

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