Glasses on newspaper featuring markets and crossword.

Lorsque les marchés financiers interprètent mal la situation politique

CAMBRIDGE – Lorsque le Parti de la justice et du développement (AKP) de Turquie a déjoué les pronostics des analystes et des sondages en regagnant la majorité parlementaire lors des élections législatives du 1er novembre dernier, les marchés financiers ont applaudi. Le jour suivant, la bourse d’Istanbul gagnait 5 pour cent et la lire turque a suivi le mouvement.

Peu importe qu’il n’y ait pas grand monde ces jours-ci, dans le monde des affaires et les milieux financiers, pour dire du bien de RecepTayyip Erdogan et de l’AKP, qu’il dirigeait avant d’accéder à la présidence. Et ne nous y trompons pas : bien que la fonction présidentielle soit censée demeurer au-dessus des politiques partisanes, Erdogan tient fermement les rênes du pouvoir.

En fait, c’est la stratégie du diviser pour régner d’Erdogan – en alimentant le populisme religieux et le sentiment nationaliste, et en ravivant les tensions ethniques avec les Kurdes – qui a permis à l’AKP de remporter les élections. On pourrait dire que c’était la seule stratégie possible : son régime a suscité l’hostilité des progressistes en muselant les médias ; les entrepreneurs avec l’expropriation des sociétés proches de ses anciens alliés du mouvement Gülen ; et l’Occident par son discours antagoniste et sa position fluctuante sur l’État islamique.

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