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当金融市场对政治产生误读

Nov 10, 2015 Dani Rodrik

坎布里奇——当土耳其正义与发展党（AKP）11月1日在大选中重获议会多数推翻了专家和民意调查机构的预测，金融市场欢呼雀跃。第二天，伊斯坦布尔证交所指数涨幅超过5%，土耳其里拉也有所升值。

别说如今在金融圈要找说雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安或他在2014年当选总统前领导的土耳其正义与发展党（AKP）好话的人很难。而且不要搞错：虽然土耳其总统本该超脱于党派政治之上，但正义与发展党的事务仍然完全由埃尔多安掌握。

其实是埃尔多安的分而治之策略——即推动宗教民粹主义和民族主义情绪，并煽动与库尔德人的民族紧张——让正义与发展党取得了胜利。可以说，这是唯一可能有效的策略。毕竟，埃尔多安政权对媒体的攻击已经疏远了自由主义者；在所谓葛兰运动中没收昔日盟友所属的企业又疏远了商界领军人物；其对抗性语言和对待伊斯兰国的多变立场又得罪了西方盟国。

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Dani Rodrik

Writing for PS since 1998
146 Commentaries

Dani Rodrik is Professor of International Political Economy at Harvard University’s John F. Kennedy School of Government. He is the author of The Globalization Paradox: Democracy and the Future of the World Economy, Economics Rules: The Rights and Wrongs of the Dismal Science, and, most recently, Straight Talk on Trade: Ideas for a Sane World Economy.

0 Comments on this paragraph, 10 in all 10 Comments on this article

Imran Awan Nov 26, 2015

I think, there is no relation between financial markets with politics. it is depend on trade.
http://www.siyasat.pk/
Nevzat Ayar Nov 15, 2015

Rodrik's remarks have validity. Personal familiarity with Turkey are also added factors in his commentary. Nothing wrong with that.

As for recent political and economic developments of the recent decade and as reinforced in the recent election, Turkish electorate is unrealistic, as well as irrational with their votes. Considering the regional strategic sensitivities, political as well as economic. As seen by its performance, their votes were cast under threat of physical and economic harm, given the choices. Considering the alternatives in these dozen or so years, the electorate allow speculation and adventurism. Worthless wisdom paved the way.

Could the results have been different with respect to economic growth, cultural equity, international relations, legal frameworks, press freedoms, independence of judiciary and political accountability? Of course they could have been different. And they were. Statistics show they were in a much better shape pre Akepe.

In recognizing the developments of the past 13 years, and the ravaging of the Republic and its outcomes that led to political elitism, urban capital oligopolies and associated political-cultural chauvinism and dictatorial interventions and unfathomable economic swings, the voters knew best as to what their take-home would be for their recent vote. More bloodshed, tears and economic decay. Since they were under heavy propaganda by the dictatorial media they were made to walk right into it.
- Nevzat Ayar Nov 16, 2015
  
  Using commentary from organizations that live in a political landscape with a deliberate intent to deceive is something akepe propaganda machine practices often. But let’s play your game, let’s dig into what is actually being said and then let’s finish with the part of the same commentary you chose to leave out.
  
  You throw statistics here as if they are better than they would be because of akepe regime. In fact they are worst than they would be because of the akepe dictatorship. The Republic’s 80 years of growth rate under liberty was 5% and during the last 13 years of dictatorship its closer to 4%. And this is despite all the global tailwinds. So akepe has a negative alpha.
  
  Take boasting Turkey as the 17th largest economy in the world as if it was the 25th and akepe made it the 17th. Turkish economy has, on the average, been the 17th largest economy in the world for the last 40-50 years. And that’s 2013 data. As of today it is more likely the 19th or 20th largest economy in the world, thanks to the dictator.
  Take measuring akepe starting at 2002 and ending it at 2012. 2002 is right after 1997-1999 Long Term Capital and Asian Crises. Add to that 1999 earthquake that devastated 1/3 of the Turkish industrial infrastructure. This exposed the weaknesses of the Turkish economic and financial landscape. Turkish economy was on its knees. With the leadership of the Ecevit coalition and the help of Kemal Dervis all macro prudent steps were taken and the economy had started to move again. By 2002 all the changes kicked in and economy was growing at pre-crises levels and moving even higher. To give the impression that this surge has anything to do with akepe is heinous.
  Add to that payments of billions of Euros from the EU as part of the deal again that was signed in 1999. Then comes the global crises and the free money flow to emerging markets at an unprecedented levels. And Turkish economy still grew slower than its long term average. That means it created less jobs than it would have which is why it has one of the highest unemployment rates around, despite the fact that even those numbers are cooked. And that means less people moved above poverty line than they would have. And by the way people are moving out of poverty globally and at higher rates than in Turkey the last decade. It is a global phenomenon and akepe’s input to that is below potential.
  
  So basically akepe dictatorship has wasted all the benefits of the time;, macro prudential changes that strengthened the Turkish economy and build confidence in the global financial markets towards Tuerkey, billions of euros of payments by the EU to create jobs, and all the free money coming into Turkey because of QEs around the world were used in embezzlement projects to enrich the dictator and its ecosystem of crooks and pay for propaganda such as we unfortunately see here at Project Syndicate last few days. That money if properly allocated could have paved the road for Turkey to become a developed country. Instead it is a country where its citizens are being made to hate each other by the tyrant, killed and jailed on a whim while bombs are exploding everywhere terrorism is running rampant. Non-of which existed at 2002. We are basically turned in to a typical Middle Eastern dictatorship.
  I am not going to go into other statistics such as the corruption, freedom of press, freedom of people and institutions. You can do a quick google search to see they are at worst levels ever, Oh and do you know what else is at worst levels ever? Turkish lira. You can also do a google search on “Turkish economy” and just read the headlines. Not a pretty picture
  
  So your propaganda here is misplaced. We are in a free country and follow and understand the developments and can write it without the fear of jail, job loss or bodily harm compared the our friends who live in akepe’s Turkey.
  I wonder how much this copy paste propaganda is costing the Turkish tax payers but here is the rest of the commentary you chose to leave out. Unfortunately as the part you posted, this one is on me too but on this one I am a willing participant.
  
  “Since 2012, however, growth has moderated. In 2013–14 and 2015, election-related uncertainties, geopolitical developments, and concerns over the Government’s handling of corruption allegations dampened confidence and weakened private demand. After growing 4.2 percent in 2013, the economy slowed to 2.9 percent in 2014. Moreover, Turkey has been vulnerable to changes in investor sentiment and, together with other emerging markets, has experienced significant currency and financial market volatility since mid-2013.”
- Tamer Kirac Nov 16, 2015
  
  World Bank:
  
  "With a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of $ 799.54 billion, Turkey is the 17th largest economy in the world. In less than a decade, per capita income in the country has nearly tripled and now exceeds $10, 500. Turkey is a member of the OECD and the G20, and an increasingly important donor to bilateral Official Development Assistance (ODA).
  
  Turkey’s rising prosperity has been shared. Between 2002 and 2012, the consumption of the bottom 40 percent increased at around the same rate as the national average. Over the same period, extreme poverty fell from 13 to 4.5 percent and moderate poverty fell from 44 to 21 percent, while access to health, education, and municipal services vastly improved for the less well-off. Since the global financial crisis, Turkey has created some 6.3 million jobs, although increases in the labor force, including through a rise in the participation of women, has kept unemployment at around 10 percent. Turkey’s achievements and future potential have been a source of inspiration for other emerging markets, and the World Bank has recently completed a report describing the country’s experiences in order to share them with interested developing countries."
R Richard Schweitzer Nov 13, 2015

Because there will be more of Lenin's rope?
Eduardo Lamarca Nov 12, 2015

I cannot say a word about Turkey. However I could understand and guess about some similarity with other countries as Brasil.
I would point another angle to, perhaps a hidden one, to look inside this matter. May or may not, the economists and the financial market, indeed, does not misread the politics.
In fact, at least on Brazilian market, it should be a kind of "lets stress the way we're doing it" it's working and, to be honest with a great return on investments. Oh, yes! But just for the financial market! Who cares about what's is going on on the politic scenario!
Absolutely, they are "forward-looking". But, however, they has been thinking and working in short term perspective, since the near future perspectives.
Regards,
ibrahim alajlan Nov 12, 2015

The way you criticize Turkey is too biased especially after what you mention in one of your previous article "Narrative Power in Turkey" that your father-in-law was the alleged mastermind of the Sledgehammer. I think basic measures of Credibility & Neutrality should should be applied when you cover that country.
Jose araujo Nov 11, 2015

I think the main question is if there is any correlation between Economic Development and Corruption?

From history there seems to be little, take the American Golden Age, where a presidential election was bought, and most moguls and captains on the industry were more or less criminals.

Take Saudi Arabia, Russia, Korea, China all oligarchies among many others..

On the other side, take Portugal/Greece/Italy where corruption was curbed on the last years and growth has plunged.

My hypothesis is that societies fight corruption after development is set, and that gives the illusion of a causation, when in fact its the opposite.
Marc Laventurier Nov 10, 2015

Dani's final paragraph states it very well - welcome to the capitalist 'marketplace of ideas'.
Tamer Kirac Nov 10, 2015

Rodrik's remarks have validity. Personal familiarity with Turkey are also added factors in his commentary. Nothing wrong with that.

As for recent political and economic developments of the recent decade and as reinforced in the recent election, Turkish electorate is realistic, as well as pragmatic with their votes. Considering the regional strategic sensitivities, political as well as economic. As seen by its performance, their votes were cast as needed, given the choices. Considering the alternatives in these dozen or so years, the electorate shyed away from speculation and adventurism. Practical wisdom paved the way.

Could the results have been different with respect to economic growth, cultural equity, international relations, legal frameworks, press freedoms, independence of judiciary and political accountability? Of course they could have been different.

In recognizing the developments of the past 90 years, since the founding of the Republic and its outcomes that led to political elitisim, urban capital oligopolies and associated political-cultural chauvenism and military interventions and unfathomable economic swings, the voters knew best as to what their take-home would be for their recent vote. This they knew well and acted upon it.

http://prosyn.org/NEVB2fC/zh;

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