La nouvelle anormalité de l'économie mondiale

NEW YORK Depuis le début de l'année, l'économie mondiale est confrontée à une nouvelle période de grande volatilité des marchés financiers, ce qui se traduit par la chute des prix brutale des actions et des autres actifs à risque. De nombreux facteurs sont en cause : l'inquiétude quant à un atterrissage brutal de l'économie chinoise, la crainte du fléchissement de la croissance américaine au moment où la Fed commence à augmenter les taux d'intérêt, la peur de l'escalade du conflit irano-saoudien et les signes de grande faiblesse affichés par la demande mondiale - avec en tête la dégringolade du prix du pétrole et des matières premières.

Et il y a bien plus. La chute du prix du pétrole, le manque de liquidités sur les marchés, l'endettement croissant des sociétés (surtout américaines) du secteur de l'énergie et la fragilité des pays exportateurs de pétrole alimentent la crainte de défauts de paiement et de crise systémique sur les marchés du crédit. Il faut aussi compter avec les inquiétudes prolongées relatives à l'Europe - une Brexit (sortie de la Grande Bretagne hors de l'UE) devenant de plus en plus probable et les partis populistes de droite comme de gauche gagnant du terrain à travers le continent.  

Ces risques sont d'autant plus menaçants que certaines tendances à moyen terme laissent entrevoir une croissance médiocre généralisée. En 2016 l'économie mondiale continuera à présenter une Nouvelle anormalité en termes de production, de politique économique, d'inflation, de comportement des marchés financiers et de prix des principaux actifs.

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