Globe

全球经济的新反常态

纽约—今年以来,全球经济面临了一系列新的严重金融市场波动,表现为股票和其他风险资产价格剧烈下跌。多重因素在起作用:担心中国经济硬着陆;担心美国增长萎靡而美联储开始升息;担心沙特-伊朗冲突升级;全球需求表现出严重疲软信号——最显著的表现便是石油和大宗商品价格暴跌。

还有其他因素。石油价格的下跌——以及市场流动性紧缺、美国能源公司以及石油出口经济体能源企业杠杆率上升、石油出口经济体脆弱的主权等——正在引起人们对严重信用事件(违约)和信用市场系统性危机的担忧。此外还有没完没了的欧洲隐忧,英国退出欧盟可能性越来越大,而右翼和左翼民粹主义政党正在整个欧洲得势。

一些糟糕的中期因素预示着平庸的增长前景,这进一步放大了这些风险。事实上,从产出、经济政策、通货膨胀和重要资产价格和金融市场的行为看,2016年将又是一个新反常态(New Abnormal)之年。

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