监管的信心周期

发自剑桥——上月末,美联储公开发布了联邦公开市场委员会(美联储的货币政策制定机构)从成立以来到2008年金融危机时期的会议记录

不幸的是,记录中绝大多数的报告都忽略了整体形势。那些批评美联储低估了潜藏爆发征兆的声音让人觉得这似乎是几个特定参与者的失误。但事实上,低估金融风险是一个普遍的问题——是规律,而非例外。

即使投资银行贝尔斯登在2008年3月宣告破产,美联储领导人仍然认定制度架构强大到足以防范危机。纽约联邦储备银行主席蒂莫西·盖特纳(Timothy Geithner)认为银行有足够的资本来承担潜在的损失。美联储副主席唐纳德·科恩(Donald Kohn)也同样告诉美国参议院,抵押贷款市场的损失不会威胁到银行的生存能力。更说明问题的是学界也持有类似观点。有个影响极大的观点认为“太大而不能倒”已不再是一个主要问题,因为过去十年的银行业法规已经将这种情况完全排除了。

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