世界经济的不可能需求

华沙—世界经济的光荣岁月毫无疑问已经结束了。但决策者的注意力仍集中在短期需求管理,希望能够重现2008—09年金融危机之前的告诉增长。这是一个错误。当我们分析新古典增长因素时——包括劳动力、资本和全要素生产率——刺激需求在长期内是否可持续、甚至是否是有效的短期政策是可疑的。

逐一考察这些增长因素。在未来15年中,人口变化趋势将会逆转(至少减缓)除非洲、中东和东南亚之外的劳动力供给增长趋势。欧洲、日本、美国甚至中国和东亚将面临劳动力短缺。

尽管大规模从劳动力盈余地区向不足地区的移民将有利于移入经济体,单几乎肯定会引发公众抵制,特别是在欧洲和东亚,这意味着这一政策难以获得支持。增加劳动力参与率,特别是女性和老年人的参与率,或许能缓解劳动力市场的紧张,单光靠这样不足以抵消工作年龄人口下降的影响。

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