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分期制裁方案

发自华沙——西方领导人在下一步如何阻止俄罗斯侵犯乌克兰的问题上依然犹豫不决。但有一件事情已经非常明确:他们迄今为止的畏首畏尾——个人制裁,武器出口禁令,以及暂时终止俄罗斯G8成员国资格——都被证明完全不足以让俄罗斯总统普京退却一步。

幸运的是,还存在一个简单的解决方案:让欧盟禁止进口来自俄罗斯的原材料,尤其是原油和天然气。问题是这个进口禁令究竟有多大的实现可能性?

当然,有充分的理由说明为何欧盟未能实施这一举措,因为欧洲依赖于俄罗斯的能源供应,而且欧洲的银行和企业在俄罗斯也拥有众多投资。但如果能采取一个经过精细衡量的策略的话,就能避免此举对欧洲经济的损害。

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