Zpětné následky sankcí

BERLÍN – V době, kdy krize na Ukrajině nabírá na intenzitě, svádějí Spojené státy a Evropská unie souboj vůlí – a sankcí – s Ruskem. V rámci odplaty za zintenzivnění finančních sankcí Západu vyhlásilo Rusko zákaz dovozu potravinářských a zemědělských produktů z USA a EU. Skutečná hrozba pro Západ však spočívá v potenciálním dopadu finanční krize, kterou zažehly jeho vlastní sankce proti Rusku.

Vezměme si ruskou finanční krizi z roku 1998. Tehdejší prezident Boris Jelcin v srpnu onoho roku deklaroval: „Žádná devalvace nebude – to je jisté a definitivní.“ O tři dny později byl rubl devalvován a ruské finanční trhy zamířily střemhlav dolů. Ze země začal proudit kapitál, ruská vláda byla nucena restrukturalizovat dluh a ekonomika zabředla do hluboké recese.

Ačkoliv bylo tehdy Rusko finančně relativně nevýznamné, měla jeho krize dalekosáhlé důsledky. Mezi nejhůře postižené země patřila Argentina; ruská krize prohloubila pokles důvěry investorů v rozvíjející se trhy, který vyvrcholil argentinským státním bankrotem o necelé čtyři roky později. Dokonce ani USA a Evropa nebyly imunní: kolaps velkého hedgeového fondu Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) rozdmýchal obavy o životaschopnost mnoha dalších finančních institucí.

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