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制裁的反作用

柏林—随着乌克兰危机的升级,美国和欧盟也陷入了与俄罗斯的意志——还有制裁——之战。事实上,作为对西方升级金融制裁的回应,俄罗斯宣布禁止从美国和欧盟进口食品和农产品。但对西方的真正威胁在于其对俄罗斯的制裁所引起的金融危机潜在影响。

以1998年俄罗斯金融危机为例。当年8月,时任总统叶利钦宣布“不会有贬值——绝对不会。”三天后,卢布贬值,俄罗斯金融市场崩溃。资本纷纷出逃,俄罗斯总理被迫重组债务,经济陷入深度衰退。

尽管俄罗斯在金融上相对不重要,但其危机仍造成了深远后果。受影响最大的是阿根廷;俄罗斯危机加剧了投资者对新兴市场信心的下滑,不出四年,阿根廷就爆发了主权违约。甚至美国和欧洲也未能幸免,大对冲基金长期资本管理公司(LTCM)的倒闭让人们十分担心其他许多金融机构的安全。

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