La Federal Reserve e le guerre valutarie

NEW YORK – La recente decisione della Federal Reserve di avviare una terza tornata di “allentamento quantitativo” ha riacceso le polemiche da parte del ministro delle finanze brasiliano Guido Mantega, che accusa gli Stati Uniti di aver scatenato una “guerra valutaria”. Nei paesi emergenti, già alle prese con l’impatto di una rapida rivalutazione monetaria sulla loro competitività, le misure espansive annunciate nelle ultime settimane dalla Banca Centrale Europea e dalla Bank of Japan hanno aumentato la preoccupazione per la decisione della Fed.

La mia impressione è che entrambe le parti abbiano ragione. La Fed ha fatto bene ad adottare nuove misure monetarie espansive per far fronte a una ripresa debole negli Stati Uniti. Inoltre, se colleghiamo tale scelta a un miglioramento del mercato del lavoro, si è trattato di un passo particolarmente importante, che altre banche centrali, in particolare la BCE, dovrebbero seguire.

Certo, l'espansione monetaria dovrebbe essere accompagnata da una posizione fiscale meno restrittiva nei paesi industrializzati. Ma lo spazio di manovra fiscale delle economie avanzate è oggi più limitato rispetto al biennio 2007-2008, e l’impasse politica americana si è aggravata, quasi escludendo ulteriori incentivi attraverso i canali del bilancio. Anche se l'efficacia di una nuova tornata di allentamento quantitativo è destinata a essere limitata, come sostiene Mantega, la Fed non poteva fare altro che agire.

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