Cómo manejar la crisis de gestión de China

BEIJING – La “Reunión de Trabajo Central sobre la Economía” de China, que abarca a los altos funcionarios gubernamentales encargados de la toma de decisiones, recientemente optó por continuar con la política fiscal y monetaria expansionista lanzada en el último trimestre de 2008. Pero también instó a un mayor énfasis en transformar el patrón de desarrollo de China y reequilibrar su estructura económica.

La medida así señaló el inicio –mucho antes que otros países- de la “salida” de China de las políticas económicas propulsadas por la crisis. De hecho, China debería acelerar su cambio de rumbo. Si bien las políticas expansionistas han logrado asegurar una recesión en forma de V, sus efectos a mediano y largo plazo son preocupantes.

En primer lugar, la gestión de la crisis en China hizo que su patrón de crecimiento, marcado por una demanda de inversión masiva, se volviera aún más problemático. La tasa de inversión de China es extremadamente alta en comparación con otras economías importantes, y se ha estado incrementando sostenidamente desde 2001, creando primero un recalentamiento y luego un exceso de capacidad. Sin embargo, hasta la crisis financiera/económica global que comenzó en 2008, un fuerte desempeño de las exportaciones ocultó el problema del exceso de capacidad de China que, gracias al paquete de estímulo, hoy puede tornarse más serio. A decir verdad, la tasa de inversión de China puede haber superado el 50% en 2009.

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