Gérer la gestion de crise de la Chine

PEKIN – Le « groupe central de travail économique » de la Chine, réunissant les plus importants décisionnaires du gouvernement, a récemment décidé de poursuivre la politique d’expansion budgétaire et monétaire lancée fin de 2008. Mais il a aussi appelé à poursuivre les efforts pour transformer les modèles de développement de la Chine et rééquilibrer sa structure économique.

Cette démarche a donc annoncé l’amorce, bien avant d’autres pays, de l’abandon par la Chine des politiques économiques dictées par la crise. La Chine devrait en effet accélérer son changement de cap. Si des politiques expansionnistes ont réussi à assurer une récession en forme de V, les conséquences de celles-ci à moyen et long terme sont inquiétantes.

Tout d’abord, la gestion chinoise de la crise a rendu son modèle de croissance, marqué par une demande massive d’investissement, encore plus problématique. Le taux d’investissement de la Chine est extrêmement élevé en comparaison avec ceux d’autres grandes économies et a augmenté régulièrement depuis 2001, provoquant une surchauffe dans un premier temps, puis une surcapacité. Jusqu’à la crise mondiale financière et économique débutée en 2008, cependant, les fortes exportations ont masqué le problème de surcapacité de la Chine, qui, compte tenu du plan de relance, devrait   désormais être plus sérieux. Le taux d’investissement chinois pourrait dépasser les 50% en 2009.

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