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应对即将到来的全球债务危机

May 13, 2020 Barry Eichengreen

伯克利—发展中国家正处于自1982年以来最严重的债务危机的风口浪尖。1982年时，债权人要经过三年的努力协商，才最终提出了以当时的美国财政部长詹姆斯·贝克（James Baker）命名的“贝克计划”（The Baker Plan）。幸运的是，这一次，二十国集团（Ｇ20）国家政府的反应更快，呼吁让低收入国家暂停偿还债务。

可以预见的是，20国集团的宣言类似于贝克计划。但有个问题：“贝克计划”没起作用。

当前席卷新兴市场和发展中国家的危机是前所未有的。超过1000亿美元的金融资本从这些市场流出，是2008年全球金融危机前两个月的三倍。

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 3 Comments on this article

Danny Leipziger May 17, 2020

Barry Eichengreen does us a service in reminding us about the Brady Plan for unsustainable debts. The main difference today, of course, is that China is a major creditor and is not a member of either the Paris or London Clubs and happy to either free-ride on debt relief or seek its own bilateral rescheduling exercises. It is for this reason that the G20 may be a useful umbrella group ( rather than the UN) if it can convince China to join in an orderly process. Like Brady Plan, the IMF and the World Bank will be needed to help design reform programs for individual debtors that increase the chances of eventual repayment. That said, there will need to be a significant write-down of debt by private creditors if free-riding can be avoided, and the only institutions capable of back-stopping this are the Bretton Woods institutions.
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Arturo Solorzano May 15, 2020

Congrats! This is the most enlightened opinion about the current debt crisis and proposed solutions I have read.
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Ray B May 14, 2020

These new debt instruments will be backed by what? "UN Charter be invoked to shield debtors from disruptive legal action by opportunistic investors." How do you expect to get any investors (including government lenders) if there is no way to ensure payment or a return on opportunity cost? International welfare will not work but reward corrupt governments and their financers. US has donated trillions to the world welfare state through foreign aid and the UN. Hasn't fixed the problem has it.
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