Wie man das Alter unsicherer macht

Es ist beinahe eine optische Täuschung: Was sich in Japan drohend am Horizont abzeichnet, und ebenso in Europa und den USA, ist eine Rentenkrise. Das Problem ist real, auch wenn es übertrieben wird. Die Täuschung steckt in einigen der Pläne, die zu seiner Lösung entwickelt werden.

Die wichtigste Frage ist, ob eine Privatisierung der Rentenkassen, so wie Präsident George W. Bush sie für das Social-Security-System der Vereinigten Staaten vorgeschlagen hat, das Problem lösen oder die Situation lediglich verschlimmern würde. Da viele Länder gegenwärtig überlegen, Varianten des Bush-Plans umzusetzen, bedarf diese Frage sorgfältiger Überlegung.

Privatisierung allein ist eindeutig keine Lösung. Bereits jetzt sieht es aus, als müsste die Regierung Amerikas angeschlagenem Privatrentensystem – inzwischen mit mehreren hundert Milliarden Dollar verschuldet – aus der Bredouille helfen. Es gab eine Zeit, in der eine Privatisierung – bei der es dem Einzelnen gestattet wäre, eigene Sparpläne abzuschließen – der in niedrig verzinste Schatzanleihen investierenden Social Security überlegen schien. Die Befürworter der Privatisierung argumentierten, dass das Geld in Aktien viel besser angelegt sei, und sagten Renditen von 9% voraus.

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